Cutar sankarau ta Covid-19 ta fallasa raunin hanyoyin sadarwar kasuwancin duniya waɗanda ke haifar da sarƙoƙi na ƙimar duniya.Sakamakon karuwar bukatu da sabbin shingen kasuwanci da aka kafa, rugujewar farko ta hanyar samar da kayayyakin kiwon lafiya masu mahimmanci ya sanya masu tsara manufofi a duniya yin tambaya game da dogaro da kasarsu ga masu samar da kayayyaki na kasashen waje da hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki na kasa da kasa.Wannan shafi zai tattauna dalla-dalla game da farfadowar da kasar Sin ta samu bayan barkewar annobar, kuma ta yi imanin cewa, martanin da ta bayar zai iya ba da haske kan makomar sarkar darajar duniya.
Sarƙoƙin darajar duniya na yanzu suna da inganci, ƙwararru da haɗin kai, amma kuma suna da matuƙar haɗari ga haɗarin duniya.Cutar sankarau ta Covid-19 hujja ce ta wannan.Yayin da kasar Sin da sauran kasashen Asiya ke fama da barkewar cutar, an katse bangaren samar da kayayyaki a cikin rubu'in farko na shekarar 2020. A karshe kwayar cutar ta bazu a duniya, lamarin da ya haddasa rufe harkokin kasuwanci a wasu kasashe.Duk duniya (Seric et al. 2020).Rugujewar sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta sa masu tsara manufofi a kasashe da dama su magance bukatuwar dogaro da kai na tattalin arziki da samar da dabarun da za su fi mayar da martani ga hadurran duniya, har ma da tsadar inganci da ci gaban da ake samu ta hanyar dunkulewar duniya (Michel 2020, Evenett 2020) .
Magance wannan bukatu na dogaro da kai, musamman ta fuskar dogaro da tattalin arziki ga kasar Sin, ya haifar da tashe-tashen hankula a fannin siyasa, kamar karuwar shiga tsakani na cinikayya a farkon watan Disamba na shekarar 2020 (Evenett da Fritz 2020).Ya zuwa shekarar 2020, an aiwatar da sabbin tsauraran matakai kusan 1,800.Wannan shi ne fiye da rabin adadin rikice-rikicen cinikayya tsakanin Sin da Amurka da kuma sabon zagaye na kariyar ciniki da aka tsananta a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata (Hoto na 1).1 Ko da yake an ɗauki sabbin matakan sassaucin ra'ayi ko kuma an soke wasu ƙuntatawa na kasuwanci na gaggawa a cikin wannan lokacin, amfani da matakan shiga tsakani na cinikayya ya wuce matakan sassaucin ra'ayi.
Lura: Tushen bayanan ƙididdiga bayan rahoton yana raguwar daidaitawa: Faɗakarwar Ciniki ta Duniya, ana ɗaukar jadawali daga Platform Nazarin Masana'antu
Kasar Sin ita ce ta fi kowacce kasa yawan rajistar nuna wariyar ciniki da 'yancin cin gashin kai a kowace kasa: daga cikin 7,634 na nuna bambancin launin fata da aka aiwatar daga watan Nuwamba na shekarar 2008 zuwa farkon Disamba 2020, kusan 3,300 (43%), da 2,715 daga cikin cinikin, 1,315 (48%). aiwatar da ayyukan sassaucin ra'ayi a lokaci guda (Hoto 2).Dangane da karuwar takaddamar cinikayya tsakanin Sin da Amurka a tsakanin shekarar 2018 zuwa 2019, idan aka kwatanta da sauran kasashe, Sin ta fuskanci takunkumin cinikayya musamman, wanda ya kara tsananta a lokacin rikicin Covid-19.
Hoto na biyu Adadin manufofin kasuwanci da kasashen da abin ya shafa suka yi tun daga watan Nuwamba 2008 zuwa farkon Disamba 2020
Lura: Wannan jadawali yana nuna ƙasashe 5 da aka fi fallasa.Bayar da kididdigar da aka daidaita.Tushen: "Faɗakarwar Ciniki ta Duniya", ana ɗaukar hotuna daga dandalin nazarin masana'antu.
Rushewar sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta Covid-19 tana ba da damar da ba a taba ganin irinta ba don gwada juriyar sarkar darajar duniya.Bayanai game da kwararar kasuwanci da fitarwar masana'antu yayin bala'in sun nuna cewa rugujewar sarkar samar da kayayyaki a farkon 2020 na wucin gadi ne (Meyer et al., 2020), kuma tsawaita sarkar darajar duniya ta yanzu wacce ke haɗa kamfanoni da tattalin arziƙi da yawa da alama ta kasance aƙalla Ga wani takamaiman. Har ila yau, yana da ikon jure wa kasuwanci da girgizar tattalin arziki (Miroudot 2020).
Fihirisar kayan aiki ta RWI.Misali, Cibiyar Nazarin Tattalin Arziki ta Leibniz da Cibiyar Harkokin Tattalin Arziki da Harkokin Kasuwanci (ISL) sun bayyana cewa, lokacin da annobar cutar ta barke a duniya, an fara samun katsewar ciniki a duniya mai tsanani a tashoshin jiragen ruwa na kasar Sin, sannan ya bazu zuwa sauran tashoshin jiragen ruwa na duniya (RWI 2020). .Koyaya, ma'aunin RWI/ISL ya kuma nuna cewa, tashoshin jiragen ruwa na kasar Sin sun farfado cikin sauri, inda suka koma kan matakan riga-kafi a watan Maris na shekarar 2020, kuma sun kara karfafa bayan dan koma baya a watan Afrilun 2020 (Hoto na 3).Fihirisar tana ƙara nuna haɓakar kayan aikin ganga.Ga duk sauran tashoshin jiragen ruwa (ba na China ba), kodayake wannan farfadowa ya fara ne daga baya kuma ya fi China rauni.
Lura: Fihirisar RWI/ISL ta dogara ne akan bayanan sarrafa kwantena da aka tattara daga tashoshin jiragen ruwa 91 a duniya.Waɗannan tashoshin jiragen ruwa suna ɗaukar mafi yawan sarrafa kwantena na duniya (60%).Tunda manyan jiragen ruwa na kwantena ne ke jigilar kayayyakin kasuwancin duniya, ana iya amfani da wannan ma'aunin a matsayin farkon alamar ci gaban kasuwancin ƙasa da ƙasa.Ƙididdigar RWI/ISL tana amfani da 2008 a matsayin shekara ta tushe, kuma adadin yana daidaitawa na yanayi.Cibiyar Harkokin Tattalin Arziki ta Leibniz / Cibiyar Harkokin Tattalin Arziki da Harkokin Kasuwanci.Ana ɗaukar ginshiƙi daga dandalin bincike na masana'antu.
An lura da irin wannan yanayin a cikin masana'antun duniya.Matakan dakile kwayar cutar na iya fara kaiwa ga samar da kayayyaki da kayayyakin da kasar Sin ke samarwa, amma kasar ta kuma ci gaba da ayyukan tattalin arziki da wuri.Zuwa Yuni 2020, kayan aikin masana'anta ya sake komawa zuwa matakan riga-kafi kuma ya ci gaba da girma tun lokacin (Hoto na 4).Tare da yaduwar Covid-19 a duniya, kimanin watanni biyu bayan haka, samarwa a wasu ƙasashe ya ragu.Farfadowar tattalin arzikin wadannan kasashe da alama ya yi tafiyar hawainiya fiye da na kasar Sin.Watanni biyu bayan da masana'antun kasar Sin suka koma matsayinsu kafin barkewar annobar, har yanzu sauran kasashen duniya suna nan a baya.
Lura: Wannan bayanan yana amfani da 2015 a matsayin shekara ta tushe, kuma an daidaita bayanan lokaci-lokaci.Tushen: UNIDO, ana ɗaukar hotuna daga Platform Nazarin Masana'antu.
Idan aka kwatanta da sauran kasashe, farfadowar tattalin arzikin kasar Sin mai karfi ya fito fili a matakin masana'antu.Jadawalin da ke ƙasa ya nuna sauye-sauyen da aka samu a kowace shekara na masana'antu biyar na kasar Sin da suka fi saurin bunkasuwa a cikin watan Satumba na shekarar 2020, dukkansu suna da nasaba sosai a cikin tsarin samar da darajar duniya (Hoto na 5).Yayin da karuwar da aka samu na hudu daga cikin wadannan masana'antu biyar a kasar Sin (nisa) ya zarce kashi 10 cikin dari, kwatankwacin abin da aka samu na tattalin arzikin masana'antu ya ragu da fiye da kashi 5 cikin dari a daidai wannan lokacin.Ko da yake ma'aunin kera kwamfutoci, na'urorin lantarki da na gani a kasashe masu arzikin masana'antu (da ma duniya baki daya) ya karu a watan Satumba na shekarar 2020, har yanzu yawan ci gabansa ya yi rauni fiye da kasar Sin.
Lura: Wannan ginshiƙi yana nuna sauye-sauyen fitarwa na masana'antu biyar masu saurin bunƙasa a kasar Sin a watan Satumba na 2020. Source: UNIDO, wanda aka ɗauka daga ginshiƙi na Platform Analysis na Masana'antu.
Ga alama farfadowar da kasar Sin ta samu cikin sauri da karfi na nuni da cewa kamfanonin kasar Sin sun fi sauran kamfanoni juriya da girgizar duniya.Hasali ma, darajar sarkar darajar da kamfanonin kasar Sin suka shiga cikinta da alama ta fi tsayin daka.Daya daga cikin dalilan na iya kasancewa China ta yi nasarar dakile yaduwar Covid-19 cikin sauri a cikin gida.Wani dalili kuma na iya zama cewa ƙasar tana da sarƙoƙin darajar yanki fiye da sauran ƙasashe.A cikin shekarun da suka gabata, kasar Sin ta zama wata kyakkyawar makoma ta zuba jari da abokan huldar cinikayya ga kasashe makwabta, musamman kungiyar kasashen kudu maso gabashin Asiya (ASEAN).Har ila yau, yana mai da hankali kan kafa dangantakar tattalin arziki ta kasa da kasa a cikin "makwabcinsa" ta hanyar yin shawarwari da kuma kammala shirin "Belt da Road" da Ƙungiyar Ƙwararrun Tattalin Arziki na Yanki (RCEP).
Daga bayanan cinikayya, za mu iya ganin karara zurfafa hadin gwiwar tattalin arziki tsakanin Sin da kasashen ASEAN.Bisa kididdigar da UNCTAD ta yi, kungiyar ASEAN ta zama babbar abokiyar ciniki ta kasar Sin, inda ta zarce Amurka da Tarayyar Turai2 (Hoto na 6).
Lura: Kasuwancin kayayyaki yana nufin jimlar shigo da kayayyaki da ake fitarwa.Tushen: UNCTAD, ana ɗaukar hotuna daga “Tsarin Nazarin Masana’antu”.
ASEAN ta zama mafi mahimmanci a matsayin yanki mai niyya don fitar da annoba.A karshen shekarar 2019, yawan karuwar shekara zai wuce 20%.Wannan ci gaban ya zarce yawan kayayyakin da China ke fitarwa zuwa ASEAN.Yawancin manyan kasuwannin duniya sun haɗa da Amurka, Japan, da Tarayyar Turai (Hoto na 7).
Duk da cewa kayayyakin da China ke fitarwa zuwa ASEAN suma sun sami tasiri ta hanyar matakan kariya da ke da alaƙa da Covid-19.An rage su da kusan kashi 5% a farkon 2020 - ba su da tasiri fiye da abubuwan da China ke fitarwa zuwa Amurka, Japan da EU.Lokacin da masana'antun kasar Sin suka farfado daga rikicin a watan Maris na shekarar 2020, kayayyakin da take fitarwa zuwa ASEAN sun sake karuwa, wanda ya karu da fiye da kashi 5% a watan Maris na 2020/Afrilu 2020, da kuma tsakanin Yuli 2020 da 2020. An samu karuwar sama da kashi 10 cikin dari a wata-wata tsakanin Satumba.
Lura: Ana ƙididdige fitar da ƙasashen waje a farashin yanzu.Daga Satumba/Oktoba 2019 zuwa Satumba/Oktoba 2020, tushen sauye-sauye na shekara-shekara: Babban Hukumar Kwastam ta Jamhuriyar Jama'ar Sin.Ana ɗaukar jadawali daga dandalin nazarin masana'antu.
Ana sa ran cewa, wannan yanayin da aka bayyana a fili na tsarin cinikayyar kasar Sin zai yi tasiri kan yadda za a sake daidaita sarkar darajar duniya, da yin tasiri a kan abokan cinikayyar gargajiyar kasar Sin.
Idan ƙwararrun sarƙoƙi masu alaƙa da haɗin kai na duniya sun fi warwatse kuma an raba yanki, yaya game da farashin sufuri - da raunin haɗari ga haɗarin duniya da rushewar sarkar samar da kayayyaki?Ana iya ragewa (Javorcik 2020).Koyaya, sarƙoƙi masu ƙarfi na yanki na iya hana kamfanoni da tattalin arziƙi daga rarraba ƙarancin albarkatu yadda ya kamata, ƙara yawan aiki ko kuma samun babban yuwuwar ta hanyar ƙwarewa.Bugu da kari, dogaro da yawa akan iyakokin yanki na iya rage yawan kamfanonin kera.Sassauci yana iyakance ikonsu na nemo madadin hanyoyin da kasuwanni lokacin da takamaiman ƙasashe ko yankuna suka shafe su (Arriola 2020).
Canje-canjen kayayyakin da Amurka ke shigowa da su daga China na iya tabbatar da haka.Sakamakon rikicin cinikayya tsakanin Sin da Amurka, kayayyakin da Amurka ke shigo da su daga kasar Sin suna raguwa a farkon watannin farko na shekarar 2020. Duk da haka, rage dogaro ga kasar Sin don tallafawa karin sarkakkiya mai daraja, ba zai kare kamfanonin Amurka daga tasirin tattalin arzikin da annobar ta haifar ba.A zahiri, shigo da kayayyaki na Amurka ya karu a cikin Maris da Afrilu 2020-musamman kayayyakin kiwon lafiya -?Kasar Sin tana kokarin biyan bukatun cikin gida (Yuli 2020).
Ko da yake sarƙoƙin darajar duniya sun nuna ɗan tsayin daka dangane da matsalolin tattalin arziƙin duniya a halin yanzu, tashe-tashen hankula na wucin gadi (amma har yanzu mai yawa) ya sa ƙasashe da yawa yin la'akari da fa'idodin da za a iya samu na yanki ko kuma daidaita sarkar darajar.Wadannan ci gaban da aka samu na baya-bayan nan da kuma karfin ci gaban tattalin arziki na kasashe masu tasowa dangane da tattalin arzikin da suka ci gaba a cikin batutuwan kasuwanci da shawarwari dangane da kasashe masu tasowa ya sa yana da wuya a yi hasashen yadda za a daidaita sarkar darajar duniya., Sake tsarawa da sake tsarawa.Kodayake gabatar da ingantaccen rigakafin a ƙarshen 2020 da farkon 2021 na iya sassauta tasirin Covid-19 a cikin tattalin arzikin duniya, ci gaba da kariyar ciniki da yanayin siyasa ya nuna cewa ba zai yuwu duniya ta koma cikin “kasuwanci” jihar kuma ta saba???.Har yanzu da sauran rina a kaba nan gaba.
Bayanin Edita: An fara buga wannan shafi ne a ranar 17 ga Disamba, 2020 ta UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform (IAP), cibiyar ilimin dijital wacce ta haɗu da binciken ƙwararru, hangen nesa na bayanai, da ba da labari kan batutuwa masu alaƙa a cikin ci gaban masana'antu.Ra'ayoyin da aka bayyana a wannan shafi na marubucin ne kuma ba lallai ba ne su yi daidai da ra'ayin UNIDO ko wasu ƙungiyoyin da marubucin ya ke.
Arriola, C, P Kowalski da F van Tongeren (2020), "Gano sarkar darajar a cikin bayan-COVID duniya zai kara asarar tattalin arziki da kuma sanya tattalin arzikin cikin gida ya zama mai rauni", VoxEU.org, 15 ga Nuwamba.
Evenett, SJ (2020), "Wasiƙar Sinawa: COVID-19, Sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya da manufofin jama'a a cikin kayayyaki na asali", Jaridar Siyasa ta Duniya 3: 408 429.
Evenett, SJ, da J Fritz (2020), "Lalacewar haɗin gwiwa: Tasirin kan iyaka na haɓaka manufofin bala'i", VoxEU.org, Nuwamba 17.
Javorcik, B (2020), "A cikin duniya bayan COVID-19, sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki na duniya za su bambanta", a cikin Baldwin, R da S Evenett (eds) COVID-19 da manufofin kasuwanci: CEPR Press ta ce me yasa juyawa cikin gida zai yi nasara?
Meyer, B, SMÃsle da M Windisch (2020), "Darussan daga lalacewa ta baya na sarƙoƙi na ƙimar duniya", Platform Nazarin Masana'antu na UNIDO, Mayu 2020.
Michel C (2020), “Tsarin Dabarun Turai-Manufar Zamaninmu” - Jawabin Shugaba Charles Michel a wurin Tunanin Bruegel a ranar 28 ga Satumba.
Miroudot, S (2020), "Tsarin juriya da ƙarfi a cikin sarƙoƙi na ƙimar duniya: Wasu Ma'anar Manufofin", aiki a Baldwin, R da SJ Evenett (eds) COVID-19 da "Manufar Kasuwanci: Me yasa Nasara Ciki", CEPR Press.
Qi L (2020), "Kayan da Sin ke fitarwa zuwa Amurka sun sami hanyar rayuwa daga buƙatun da ke da alaƙa da coronavirus", The Wall Street Journal, Oktoba 9.
Seric, A, HGörg, SM?sle da M Windisch (2020), "Sarrafa COVID-19: Yadda cutar ke wargaza sarƙoƙin darajar duniya", Platform Nazarin Masana'antu na UNIDO, Afrilu.
1. Taskar bayanai ta “Fadar Kasuwancin Duniya” tana ƙunshe da tsare-tsare na manufofi kamar matakan jadawalin kuɗin fito, tallafin fitar da kayayyaki, matakan saka hannun jari masu alaƙa da ciniki, da ƴancin cin gashin kai/matakan kariya waɗanda zasu iya shafar kasuwancin waje.
Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-07-2021