Ọrịa Covid-19 ekpughere adịghị ike nke netwọk azụmahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ nke na-akwado ụdọ ọnụ ahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ.N'ihi ịrị elu n'ọchịchọ na ihe mgbochi azụmaahịa e hiwere ọhụrụ, nbighasị mbụ nke usoro ịnye ngwaahịa ọgwụ dị oke mkpa emeela ka ndị na-eme amụma gburugburu ụwa na-agbagha ndabere obodo ha na ndị na-ebubata ngwaahịa si mba ofesi na netwọk mmepụta mba ụwa.Kọlụm a ga-atụle n'ụzọ zuru ezu banyere mgbake China na-agbasa mgbe ọrịa ahụ gasịrị, ma kwenye na nzaghachi ya nwere ike inye nkọwa maka ọdịnihu nke ụdọ uru zuru ụwa ọnụ.
Agbụ ọnụ ahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ ugbu a na-arụ ọrụ nke ọma, ndị ọkachamara na njikọta ọnụ, mana ha dịkwa oke ngwa ngwa n'ihe egwu zuru ụwa ọnụ.Ọrịa Covid-19 bụ ihe akaebe doro anya nke a.Ka China na akụ na ụba Eshia ndị ọzọ butere ọrịa nje ahụ, a kwụsịrị n'akụkụ ndị na-ebubata ya na nkeji mbụ nke 2020. Nje Virus mechara gbasaa n'ụwa niile, na-akpata mmechi azụmahịa na mba ụfọdụ.Ụwa dum (Seric et al. 2020).Ọdịda nke usoro ọkọnọ na-esote kpaliri ndị na-eme amụma n'ọtụtụ mba iji lebara mkpa ọ dị maka inwe afọ ojuju akụ na ụba na imepụta atụmatụ iji meghachi omume nke ọma maka ihe egwu zuru ụwa ọnụ, ọbụlagodi na ọnụ ahịa arụmọrụ na nkwalite nrụpụta nke ijikọ ụwa ọnụ wetara (Michel 2020, Evenett 2020) .
Ịkwado mkpa a maka inwe afọ ojuju, ọkachasị n'ihe gbasara ịdabere akụ na ụba na China, butere esemokwu geopolitical, dị ka mmụba nke ntinye aka azụmaahịa na mbido Disemba 2020 (Evenett na Fritz 2020).Na 2020, ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ 1,800 ihe mgbochi ọhụrụ emejuputala.Nke a bụ ihe karịrị ọkara nke ọnụ ọgụgụ nke esemokwu azụmahịa nke Sino-US na mgbanwe ọhụrụ nke nchebe ahia siri ike n'ime afọ abụọ gara aga (Nyocha 1).1 Ọ bụ ezie na emere usoro ntọhapụ azụmaahịa ọhụrụ ma ọ bụ kagbuo ụfọdụ mmachi azụmaahịa mberede n'ime oge a, iji usoro itinye aka n'ịzụ ahịa ịkpa oke karịrị usoro liberalization.
Mara: Isi mmalite nke data ndekọ aha mgbe akụkọ ahụ na-adaghachi azụ: Global Trade Alert, a na-ewere eserese ahụ site na Platform Analytics Industrial
China nwere ọnụ ọgụgụ kasị ukwuu nke ịkpa ókè azụmaahịa edebanyere aha na ntinye aka n'ịzụ ahịa na mba ọ bụla: n'ime 7,634 ịkpa ókè agbụrụ etinyere site na Nọvemba 2008 ruo mmalite Disemba 2020, ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ 3,300 (43%), na 2,715 N'etiti azụmaahịa, 1,315 (48%). etinyere mmemme liberalization n'otu oge ahụ (Nyocha 2).N'ihe gbasara esemokwu azụmaahịa dị n'etiti China na United States na 2018-19, ma e jiri ya tụnyere mba ndị ọzọ, China echewo mmachi azụmaahịa dị elu, nke gbagoro n'ihu n'oge ọgba aghara Covid-19.
Ọgụgụ 2 Ọnụọgụ ntinye aka nke amụma azụmaahịa sitere na mba ndị metụtara site na Nọvemba 2008 ruo mmalite Disemba 2020
Mara: Eserese a na-egosi obodo ise kacha ekpughere ya.Kpọọ ọnụ ọgụgụ emezigharịrị akwụsịla.Isi mmalite: "Global Trade Alert", a na-ewere eserese site na ikpo okwu nyocha ụlọ ọrụ.
Nkwụsị nke ụdọ ọkọnọ Covid-19 na-enye ohere a na-enwetụbeghị ụdị ya iji nwalee nkwụghachi azụ nke ụdọ uru zuru ụwa ọnụ.Ihe omuma banyere usoro ahia ahia na mmepụta n'oge oria ojoo a na-egosi na nbibi nke agbụ ọkọnọ na mbido 2020 bụ nwa oge (Meyer et al., 2020), na ụdọ ọnụ ahịa uru zuru ụwa ọnụ ugbu a na-ejikọ ọtụtụ ụlọ ọrụ na akụ na ụba yiri ka ọ dịkarịa ala. ruo n'ókè, o nwere ikike iguzogide azụmahịa na ihe ịma jijiji akụ na ụba (Miroudot 2020).
Ndekọ ntinye ihe nke akpa RWI.Dịka ọmụmaatụ, Leibniz Institute for Economic Research na Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) kwuru na mgbe ọrịa zuru ụwa ọnụ malitere, nnukwu nkwụsị azụmahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ dabara n'ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri ndị China wee gbasaa na ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri ndị ọzọ n'ụwa (RWI 2020) .Agbanyeghị, ndepụta RWI/ISL gosikwara na ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri ndị China gbakere ngwa ngwa, na-alaghachi na ọkwa tupu ọrịa ọrịa na Machị 2020, wee gbasie ike mgbe ntakịrị ndọghachi azụ na Eprel 2020 (Nyocha 3).Ndekọ ndeksi ahụ na-egosikwa mmụba nke ntinye akpa.Maka ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri ndị ọzọ (na-abụghị ndị China), ọ bụ ezie na mgbake a malitere ma emesịa na-esighị ike karịa China.
Mara: Ndekọ RWI/ISL dabere na data njikwa akpa anakọtara site na ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri 91 gburugburu ụwa.Ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri ndị a na-akpata ọtụtụ njikwa akpa ụwa (60%).Ebe ọ bụ na a na-ejikarị ụgbọ mmiri na-ebufe ngwaahịa azụmaahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ, enwere ike iji ndeksi a mee ihe dị ka ihe ngosipụta mmalite nke mmepe azụmaahịa mba ụwa.Ndekọ RWI/ISL na-eji 2008 dị ka afọ ntọala, a na-edozikwa ọnụọgụgụ n'oge.Leibniz Institute of Economics/ Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.A na-ewepụta eserese ahụ site na ikpo okwu nyocha ụlọ ọrụ.
A hụla usoro yiri nke a na mmepụta mmepụta ụwa.Usoro mgbochi mgbochi nje nwere ike ibu ụzọ bute mmepụta na mmepụta China, mana obodo ahụ maliteghachiri ọrụ akụ na ụba ozugbo enwere ike.Ka ọ na-erule June 2020, mmepụta nrụpụta ya alaghachila n'ọkwa ọrịa butere ọrịa wee gaa n'ihu na-eto kemgbe ahụ (Nkeji 4).Site na mgbasa nke Covid-19 na mba ụwa, ihe dị ka ọnwa abụọ ka e mesịrị, mmepụta na mba ndị ọzọ belatara.Mgbake akụ na ụba nke mba ndị a yiri ka ọ na-eji nwayọọ karịa nke China.Ọnwa abụọ ka nrụpụta nrụpụta China laghachiri n'ọkwa tupu ọrịa ọrịa, ụwa ndị ọzọ ka na-ada azụ.
Cheta na: Nke a data na-eji 2015 dị ka isi afọ, na data na-n'oge na-agbanwe agbanwe.Isi mmalite: UNIDO, a na-ewere eserese site na Platform Analytics Industrial.
Tụnyere mba ndị ọzọ, mgbake akụ na ụba China siri ike pụta ìhè na ọkwa ụlọ ọrụ.Chaatị dị n'okpuru na-egosi mgbanwe otu afọ na mmepụta nke ụlọ ọrụ ise na-eto ngwa ngwa nke China na Septemba 2020, ha niile jikọtara ọnụ na n'ichepụta ọnụ ahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ (Nyocha 5).Ọ bụ ezie na mmụba nke anọ n'ime ụlọ ọrụ ise ndị a na China (nke dị anya) karịrị 10%, mmepụta nke akụ na ụba mepere emepe dabara karịa 5% n'otu oge ahụ.Agbanyeghị na ọnụ ọgụgụ nke nrụpụta kọmputa, ngwa elektrọnik na ngwa anya na mba mepere emepe (na gburugburu ụwa) agbasala na Septemba 2020, ọnụego uto ya ka na-esighi ike karịa China.
Mara: Chaatị a na-egosi mgbanwe mmepụta nke ụlọ ọrụ ise na-eto ngwa ngwa na China na Septemba 2020. Isi mmalite: UNIDO, nke ewepụtara na eserese nke Industrial Analysis Platform.
Mgbake ngwa ngwa na ike siri ike nke China yiri ka ọ na-egosi na ụlọ ọrụ China na-eguzogide ihe egwu zuru ụwa ọnụ karịa ọtụtụ ụlọ ọrụ ndị ọzọ.N'ezie, ọnụ ahịa uru nke ụlọ ọrụ ndị China na-etinye aka na ya yiri ka ọ na-esikwu ike.Otu n'ime ihe kpatara ya nwere ike ịbụ na China nwere ihe ịga nke ọma n'ịkwụsị mgbasa nke Covid-19 na mpaghara ngwa ngwa.Ihe ọzọ kpatara ya nwere ike ịbụ na obodo ahụ nwere ọnụọgụ uru mpaghara karịa obodo ndị ọzọ.N'ime afọ ndị gafeworonụ, China abụrụla ebe ntinye ego na-adọrọ adọrọ na onye mmekọ azụmaahịa maka mba ndị agbata obi, ọkachasị Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN).Ọ na-elekwasịkwa anya na ịmepụta mmekọrịta akụ na ụba mba ụwa n'ime "agbata obi" ya site na mkparita uka na mmechi nke "Belt and Road" atụmatụ na Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Site na data ahia, anyị nwere ike ịhụ n'ụzọ doro anya njikọ akụ na ụba miri emi dị n'etiti China na mba ASEAN.Dabere na data UNCTAD, otu ASEAN abụrụla ndị mmekọ azụmaahịa kacha ukwuu nke China, karịrị United States na European Union2 (Nkeji 6).
Mara: Azụmahịa ngwa ahịa na-ezo aka na nchikota nke mbubata na mbupụ nke ngwa ahịa.Isi mmalite: UNCTAD, a na-ewere eserese site na "Platform Analysis Industrial Analysis".
ASEAN abụrụla ihe dị mkpa dị ka mpaghara ebumnuche maka mbupụ ọrịa na-efe efe.Ka ọ na-erule njedebe nke 2019, ọnụego uto kwa afọ ga-akarị 20%.Ọnụego uto a dị elu karịa ihe ndị China na-ebupụ na ASEAN.Ọtụtụ nnukwu ahịa ụwa ndị ọzọ gụnyere United States, Japan, na European Union (Foto 7).
Agbanyeghị na mbupụ ndị China na ASEAN metụtakwara usoro njide jikọtara na Covid-19.E belatara ihe dịka 5% na mbido 2020 - ha adịghị emetụta karịa mbupụ ndị China na US, Japan na EU.Mgbe mmepụta ihe nrụpụta China gbakere na nsogbu ahụ na Machị 2020, mbupụ ya na ASEAN mụbara ọzọ, na-abawanye ihe karịrị 5% na Machị 2020/April 2020, yana n'etiti July 2020 na 2020. Enwere mmụba kwa ọnwa karịa 10% n'etiti. Septemba.
Mara: Mbupụ n'akụkụ abụọ gbakọrọ na ọnụ ahịa dị ugbu a.Site na Septemba/October 2019 ruo Septemba/October 2020, isi mmalite mgbanwe afọ na afọ: Ọchịchị General nke Customs nke Republic of China.A na-ewepụta eserese ahụ site na ikpo okwu nyocha ụlọ ọrụ.
A na-atụ anya na usoro nhazi mpaghara a doro anya nke usoro azụmahịa nke China ga-enwe mmetụta na otu esi emegharị ọnụ ahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ ma nwee mmetụta na-akụda aka na ndị mmekọ azụmahịa nke China.
Ọ bụrụ na agbụ ọnụ ahịa ọnụ ahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ pụrụiche nke nwere njikọ chiri anya na-agbasawanye na mpaghara mpaghara, kedu maka ụgwọ njem njem - yana adịghị ike maka ihe egwu zuru ụwa ọnụ yana nkwụsị nke agbụ ọkọnọ?Enwere ike belata (Javorcik 2020).Agbanyeghị, ụdọ ọnụ ahịa mpaghara siri ike nwere ike igbochi ụlọ ọrụ na akụ na ụba ịkesa akụrụngwa dị ụkọ nke ọma, na-abawanye nrụpụta ma ọ bụ nweta ikike dị elu site na ọpụrụiche.Na mgbakwunye, ntụkwasị obi dị ukwuu na mpaghara mpaghara nwere oke nwere ike ibelata ọnụ ọgụgụ ụlọ ọrụ nrụpụta.Mgbanwe na-egbochi ikike ha ịchọta isi mmalite na ahịa ndị ọzọ mgbe obodo ma ọ bụ mpaghara ụfọdụ metụtara ha (Arriola 2020).
Mgbanwe na mbubata US sitere na China nwere ike igosi nke a.N'ihi esemokwu azụmahịa nke Sino-US, mbubata US sitere na China na-agbada n'ime ọnwa ole na ole mbụ nke 2020. Agbanyeghị, ibelata ịdabere na China iji kwado agbụ ọnụ ahịa mpaghara karịa agaghị echebe ụlọ ọrụ US na mmetụta akụ na ụba nke ọrịa a.N'ezie, mbubata US gbagoro na Machị na Eprel 2020 - ọkachasị akụrụngwa ọgwụ -?China na-agba mbọ imezu ihe a chọrọ n'ụlọ (July 2020).
Ọ bụ ezie na ụdọ ọnụ ahịa ọnụ ahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ egosila ụfọdụ nkwụghachi azụ n'ihu nsogbu akụ na ụba ụwa ugbu a, nkwụsịtụ oge (ma ka dị ukwuu) na-eweta ihe na-eme ka ọtụtụ mba chegharịa uru dị na mpaghara mpaghara ma ọ bụ nhazi nke agbụ ọnụ ahịa.Ihe ndị a na-eme n'oge na-adịbeghị anya na ike na-eto eto nke akụ na ụba na-emepe emepe metụtara akụ na ụba mepere emepe na okwu azụmahịa na mkparịta ụka gbasara akụ na ụba na-emepụta na-eme ka ọ sie ike ịkọ ka ọ ga-esi mee ka ọ dịkwuo mma ịhazi usoro ahịa zuru ụwa ọnụ., Nhazigharị na nhazigharị.Ọ bụ ezie na iwebata ọgwụ mgbochi dị irè na ngwụcha 2020 na mmalite 2021 nwere ike ịtọpụ mmetụta Covid-19 na akụ na ụba ụwa, nchebe azụmaahịa na-aga n'ihu na usoro geopolitical na-egosi na ụwa enweghị ike ịlaghachi na steeti “azụmahịa” na mbụ???.A ka nwere ogologo ụzọ ịga n'ọdịnihu.
ndetu Editor: E bipụtara kọlụm a na Disemba 17, 2020 site na UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform (IAP), ebe ihe ọmụma dijitalụ na-ejikọta nyocha ndị ọkachamara, nleba anya data, na ịkọ akụkọ n'isiokwu ndị metụtara na mmepe ụlọ ọrụ.Echiche ndị ekwuru na kọlụm a bụ nke onye odee na ọ bụchaghị egosipụta echiche nke UNIDO ma ọ bụ òtù ndị ọzọ nke onye odee nọ na ya.
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Evenett, SJ (2020), “Mkparị nke China: COVID-19, Chain Supply Chain Global and Public Policy in Basic Commodities”, Akwụkwọ akụkọ amụma azụmahịa mba ụwa 3:408 429.
Evenett, SJ, na J Fritz (2020), "Mbibi nkwekọrịta: oke oke nke nkwalite amụma ọrịa na-efe efe", VoxEU.org, Nọvemba 17.
Javorcik, B (2020), "N'ụwa mgbe COVID-19 gachara, ụdọ ọkọnọ ụwa ga-adị iche", na Baldwin, R na S Evenett (eds) COVID-19 na amụma azụmaahịa: CEPR Press kwuru gịnị kpatara ịtụgharị n'ime ga-aga nke ọma?
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Michel C (2020), “Nnwere onwe Strategic nke Europe-Ebumnobi nke Ọgbọ Anyị”-Okwu nke Onye isi ala Charles Michel na Bruegel Think Tank na Septemba 28.
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1 Ebe nchekwa data “Global Trade Alert” nwere mmemme amụma dị ka usoro tarifu, enyemaka mbupụ, usoro itinye ego metụtara azụmaahịa, yana usoro ntọhapụ nke azụmaahịa / ihe nchebe nwere ike imetụta azụmaahịa mba ofesi.
Oge nzipu: Jan-07-2021