Mliri wa Covid-19 waulula kufooka kwa maukonde amalonda apadziko lonse lapansi omwe amathandizira unyolo wapadziko lonse lapansi.Chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa kufunikira komanso zolepheretsa zamalonda zomwe zangokhazikitsidwa kumene, kusokonezeka koyambirira kwa njira zoperekera zinthu zachipatala zofunikira kwapangitsa opanga mfundo padziko lonse lapansi kukayikira kudalira kwa dziko lawo pazogulitsa zakunja ndi maukonde opanga mayiko.Mzerewu ukambirana mwatsatanetsatane za kuchira kwa mliri waku China pambuyo pa mliri, ndikukhulupirira kuti kuyankha kwake kungapereke zidziwitso zamtsogolo zaunyolo wapadziko lonse lapansi.
Maunyolo omwe alipo pano padziko lonse lapansi ndi othandiza, akatswiri komanso olumikizana, koma amakhalanso pachiwopsezo chambiri padziko lonse lapansi.Mliri wa Covid-19 ndi umboni womveka bwino wa izi.Pamene chuma cha China ndi ku Asia chinakhudzidwa ndi kufalikira kwa kachilomboka, mbali yothandizira idasokonekera m'gawo loyamba la 2020. Vutoli linafalikira padziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zinachititsa kuti malonda atsekedwe m'mayiko ena.Dziko lonse lapansi (Seric et al. 2020).Kusokonekera kotsatizana kwazinthu zomwe zidapangitsa opanga mfundo m'maiko ambiri kuthana ndi kufunikira kodzidalira pazachuma ndikupanga njira zothanirana ndi zoopsa zapadziko lonse lapansi, ngakhale pamtengo wakuchita bwino komanso kutukuka kwapadziko lonse lapansi (Michel 2020, Evenett 2020) .
Kuthana ndi kufunikira kodzidalira kumeneku, makamaka pankhani yodalira chuma ku China, kwadzetsa mikangano yazandale, monga kukwera kwakuchitapo kanthu pazamalonda pofika kumayambiriro kwa Disembala 2020 (Evenett ndi Fritz 2020).Pofika chaka cha 2020, njira zatsopano zoletsa zoletsa pafupifupi 1,800 zakhazikitsidwa.Izi ndizoposa theka la chiwerengero cha mikangano yamalonda ya Sino-US ndi kuzungulira kwatsopano kwa chitetezo cha malonda kunakula zaka ziwiri zapitazo (Chithunzi 1).1 Ngakhale njira zatsopano zogulitsira malonda zidatengedwa kapena zoletsa zina zamalonda zadzidzidzi zidathetsedwa panthawiyi, kugwiritsa ntchito njira zolondolera zatsankho kunapitilira njira zowombolera.
Zindikirani: Kumene kwa ziwerengero pambuyo poti lipoti likusintha mochedwa: Global Trade Alert, graph imatengedwa kuchokera ku Industrial Analytics Platform.
China ili ndi chiwerengero chachikulu kwambiri cha tsankho lazamalonda ndi kumasulidwa kwa malonda m'dziko lililonse: mwa 7,634 njira zamalonda zatsankho zomwe zakhazikitsidwa kuyambira November 2008 mpaka kumayambiriro kwa December 2020, pafupifupi 3,300 (43%), ndi 2,715 Pakati pa malonda, 1,315 (48%). adakhazikitsa njira zothandizira kumasula nthawi yomweyo (Chithunzi 2).Pakuchulukirachulukira kwa kusamvana kwamalonda pakati pa China ndi United States mu 2018-19, poyerekeza ndi mayiko ena, China yakumana ndi zoletsa zamalonda, zomwe zakula kwambiri panthawi yamavuto a Covid-19.
Chithunzi 2 Chiwerengero cha ndondomeko zamalonda zomwe mayiko omwe akhudzidwa nawo achitapo kanthu kuyambira November 2008 mpaka kumayambiriro kwa December 2020
Zindikirani: Chithunzichi chikuwonetsa mayiko 5 omwe akuwonekera kwambiri.Nenani ziwerengero zomwe zasinthidwa.Gwero: "Global Trade Alert", ma graph amatengedwa kuchokera ku nsanja yowunikira mafakitale.
Kusokonekera kwa njira zoperekera zinthu za Covid-19 kumapereka mwayi womwe sunachitikepo woyesa kulimba kwa maunyolo amtengo wapatali padziko lonse lapansi.Zambiri pamayendedwe amalonda ndi zomwe zidapanga panthawi ya mliri zikuwonetsa kuti kusokonekera kwazinthu zogulitsira koyambirira kwa 2020 kunali kwakanthawi (Meyer et al., 2020), ndipo kuchuluka kwapadziko lonse lapansi komwe kumalumikiza makampani ambiri ndi chuma kukuwoneka ngati kuli kocheperako. kukula kwake, imatha kupirira zovuta zamalonda ndi zachuma (Miroudot 2020).
Mndandanda wazomwe ulipo pa intaneti wa mbiri yakale ya RWI.Mwachitsanzo, bungwe la Leibniz Institute for Economic Research ndi Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) linanena kuti mliri wapadziko lonse utayamba, kusokonezeka kwakukulu kwa malonda padziko lonse kunagunda madoko aku China ndikufalikira ku madoko ena padziko lapansi (RWI 2020) .Komabe, index ya RWI/ISL idawonetsanso kuti madoko aku China adachira mwachangu, kuyambiranso kufalikira kwa mliri mu Marichi 2020, ndikulimbikitsanso pambuyo pobwerera pang'ono mu Epulo 2020 (Chithunzi 3).Mlozerawu umatanthauzanso kuwonjezeka kwa zotengera zotengera.Kwa madoko ena onse (osakhala achi China), ngakhale kuchira uku kudayamba pambuyo pake ndipo kumakhala kofooka kuposa China.
Chidziwitso: Mlozera wa RWI/ISL watengera zomwe zatengedwa kuchokera kumadoko 91 padziko lonse lapansi.Madoko awa ndi omwe amanyamula zida zambiri zapadziko lonse lapansi (60%).Popeza katundu wamalonda wapadziko lonse amanyamulidwa makamaka ndi zombo zapamadzi, index iyi ikhoza kugwiritsidwa ntchito ngati chizindikiro choyambirira chakukula kwa malonda apadziko lonse lapansi.Mndandanda wa RWI/ISL umagwiritsa ntchito 2008 ngati chaka choyambira, ndipo chiwerengerocho chimasinthidwa nyengo.Leibniz Institute of Economics/Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.Tchaticho chimatengedwa kuchokera ku nsanja yowunikira mafakitale.
Mchitidwe wofananawo wawonedwa ndi zopanga zapadziko lonse.Njira zokhazikika zothanirana ndi ma virus zitha kukhudza kupanga ndi kutulutsa kwa China, koma dzikolo lidayambiranso ntchito zachuma posachedwa.Pofika mwezi wa June 2020, zopanga zake zachulukanso mpaka mliri usanachitike ndipo ukupitilira kukula kuyambira pamenepo (Chithunzi 4).Ndi kufalikira kwa Covid-19 padziko lonse lapansi, pafupifupi miyezi iwiri pambuyo pake, kupanga kumayiko ena kudachepa.Kubwerera kwachuma kwa mayikowa kukuwoneka kuti kukucheperachepera kuposa ku China.Miyezi iwiri kuchokera pomwe zopanga zaku China zidabwerera ku mliri usanachitike, dziko lonse lapansi likadali m'mbuyo.
Zindikirani: Deta iyi imagwiritsa ntchito 2015 ngati chaka choyambira, ndipo deta imasinthidwa nyengo.Gwero: UNIDO, ma graph amatengedwa kuchokera ku Industrial Analytics Platform.
Poyerekeza ndi maiko ena, kuyambiranso kwachuma ku China kumawonekera kwambiri pamlingo wamakampani.Tchati chomwe chili m'munsichi chikuwonetsa kusintha kwa chaka ndi chaka pamafakitale asanu omwe akukula kwambiri ku China mu Seputembala 2020, onse omwe aphatikizidwa kwambiri pakupanga padziko lonse lapansi (Chithunzi 5).Ngakhale kukula kwa mafakitale anayi mwa asanuwa ku China (kutali) kudaposa 10%, kutulutsa kofananirako kwamayiko otukuka kudatsika ndi 5% munthawi yomweyo.Ngakhale kukula kwa makompyuta opanga makompyuta, zinthu zamagetsi ndi zamagetsi m'maiko otukuka (komanso padziko lonse lapansi) zakula mu Seputembara 2020, chiwopsezo chake chikadali chocheperako kuposa China.
Chidziwitso: Tchatichi chikuwonetsa kusintha kwa mafakitale asanu omwe akukula kwambiri ku China mu Seputembala 2020. Gwero: UNIDO, yotengedwa patchati cha Industrial Analysis Platform.
Kuchira kofulumira komanso kolimba kwa China kukuwoneka kuti kukuwonetsa kuti makampani aku China amalimbana ndi zoopsa zapadziko lonse lapansi kuposa makampani ena ambiri.M'malo mwake, mndandanda wamtengo wapatali womwe makampani aku China akukhudzidwa kwambiri akuwoneka kuti ndiwokhazikika.Chimodzi mwazifukwa chingakhale chakuti China idachita bwino kuletsa kufalikira kwa Covid-19 kwanuko.Chifukwa china chingakhale chakuti dzikoli lili ndi maunyolo amtengo wapatali kuposa mayiko ena.Kwa zaka zambiri, dziko la China lakhala malo okongola kwambiri opangira ndalama komanso ochita nawo malonda kumayiko oyandikana nawo, makamaka Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN).Imayang'ananso kukhazikitsa ubale wachuma padziko lonse lapansi mkati mwa "oyandikana nawo" kudzera muzokambirana ndi kutsiriza kwa "Belt and Road" initiative ndi Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Kuchokera kuzinthu zamalonda, tikhoza kuona bwino mgwirizano wakuya wachuma pakati pa China ndi mayiko a ASEAN.Malinga ndi data ya UNCTAD, Gulu la ASEAN lakhala bwenzi lalikulu kwambiri lazamalonda ku China, kuposa United States ndi European Union2 (Chithunzi 6).
Chidziwitso: Kugulitsa zinthu kumatanthawuza kuchuluka kwazinthu zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja ndi kutumizidwa kunja.Gwero: UNCTAD, ma graph amatengedwa ku "Industrial Analysis Platform".
ASEAN yakhala yofunika kwambiri ngati dera lomwe mukufuna kutumiza kunja kwa mliri.Pofika kumapeto kwa 2019, chiwonjezeko chapachaka chidzapitirira 20%.Kukula uku ndikwambiri kuposa zomwe China imatumiza ku ASEAN.Misika ina yambiri yapadziko lonse lapansi ikuphatikizapo United States, Japan, ndi European Union (Chithunzi 7).
Ngakhale zomwe China zimatumiza ku ASEAN zakhudzidwanso ndi zotengera zomwe zimalumikizidwa ndi Covid-19.Kuchepetsedwa ndi pafupifupi 5% koyambirira kwa 2020-sakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi zomwe China zimatumiza ku US, Japan ndi EU.Zomwe zidapanga ku China zidabwereranso kumavuto mu Marichi 2020, zomwe zimatumiza ku ASEAN zidakweranso, zikuwonjezeka ndi 5% mu Marichi 2020/Epulo 2020, komanso pakati pa Julayi 2020 ndi 2020. Panali chiwonjezeko cha pamwezi chopitilira 10% pakati September.
Zindikirani: Kutumiza kunja kwa mayiko awiri kumawerengeredwa pamitengo yapano.Kuyambira Seputembara/ Okutobala 2019 mpaka Seputembara/ Okutobala 2020, gwero la zosintha zapachaka: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.Grafu imatengedwa kuchokera ku nsanja yowunikira mafakitale.
Zikuyembekezeka kuti mchitidwe wodziwikiratu wa chigawochi wamalonda aku China ukhudza momwe angagwiritsire ntchito ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi komanso kukhudza kwambiri omwe akuchita nawo malonda aku China.
Ngati maunyolo apamwamba kwambiri komanso olumikizana padziko lonse lapansi amwazikana komanso kugawidwa m'madera, nanga bwanji zamitengo yamayendedwe - komanso kutetezedwa ku ziwopsezo zapadziko lonse lapansi ndi kusokonekera kwa mayendedwe?Atha kuchepetsedwa (Javorcik 2020).Komabe, maunyolo amphamvu am'madera amatha kulepheretsa makampani ndi azachuma kugawa bwino zinthu zomwe zikusowa, kukulitsa zokolola kapena kuzindikira kuthekera kwakukulu kudzera mwaukadaulo.Kuphatikiza apo, kudalira kwambiri malo ocheperako kungachepetse kuchuluka kwamakampani opanga zinthu.Kusinthasintha kumalepheretsa kuthekera kwawo kupeza njira zina ndi misika ikakhudzidwa ndi mayiko kapena zigawo zina (Arriola 2020).
Kusintha kwa katundu wa US kuchokera ku China kungatsimikizire izi.Chifukwa cha mikangano yamalonda ya Sino-US, katundu wa US kuchokera ku China wakhala akutsika m'miyezi ingapo yoyambirira ya 2020. Komabe, kuchepetsa kudalira China kuti ithandizire maunyolo amtengo wapatali m'madera sikungateteze makampani aku US ku zovuta zachuma za mliriwu.M'malo mwake, zogulitsa kunja ku US zidakwera mu Marichi ndi Epulo 2020-makamaka zida zamankhwala -?China ikuyesetsa kukwaniritsa zofuna zapakhomo (Julayi 2020).
Ngakhale kuti maunyolo amtengo wapatali padziko lonse lapansi awonetsa kulimba mtima poyang'anizana ndi kusokonekera kwachuma kwapadziko lonse lapansi, kusokonekera kwakanthawi (komabe kokulirapo) kwapangitsa kuti mayiko ambiri aganizirenso za phindu lomwe lingakhalepo pakukhazikitsa madera kapena kukhazikika kwa maunyolo amtengo wapatali.Zomwe zachitika posachedwapa komanso mphamvu zomwe zikukula za chuma chomwe chikubwera pokhudzana ndi chuma chotukuka pa nkhani zamalonda ndi zokambirana zokhudzana ndi chuma chomwe chikukwera kumapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta kufotokoza momwe angasinthire bwino ndondomeko yamtengo wapatali padziko lonse lapansi., Kukonzanso ndi kukonzanso.Ngakhale kukhazikitsidwa kwa katemera wogwira ntchito kumapeto kwa 2020 komanso koyambirira kwa 2021 kutha kumasula mphamvu za Covid-19 pachuma chapadziko lonse lapansi, kupitilizabe chitetezo chazamalonda ndi zochitika zapadziko lonse lapansi zikuwonetsa kuti dziko lapansi silingabwerere ku "bizinesi" momwemonso???.Palinso njira yayitali mtsogolo.
Chidziwitso cha mkonzi: Gawoli lidasindikizidwa koyamba pa Disembala 17, 2020 ndi UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform (IAP), malo odziwa zambiri za digito omwe amaphatikiza kusanthula kwa akatswiri, kuwona kwa data, ndi kufotokoza nkhani zokhudzana ndi chitukuko cha mafakitale .Malingaliro omwe afotokozedwa m'gawoli ndi a wolemba ndipo samawonetsa malingaliro a UNIDO kapena mabungwe ena omwe wolembayo ali nawo.
Arriola, C, P Kowalski ndi F van Tongeren (2020), "Kupeza phindu m'dziko la post-COVID kudzachulukitsa kuwonongeka kwachuma ndikupangitsa chuma chapakhomo kukhala pachiwopsezo chachikulu", VoxEU.org, 15 Novembara.
Evenett, SJ (2020), "Manong'onong'o aku China: COVID-19, Global Supply Chain and Public Policy in Basic Commodities", International Business Policy Journal 3:408 429.
Evenett, SJ, ndi J Fritz (2020), "Kuwonongeka kwa Mgwirizano: Zotsatira za malire a kukwezera mfundo za mliri", VoxEU.org, Novembala 17.
Javorcik, B (2020), "Padziko lapansi pambuyo pa COVID-19, maunyolo apadziko lonse lapansi adzakhala osiyana", ku Baldwin, R ndi S Evenett (eds) COVID-19 ndi mfundo zamalonda: CEPR Press ikuti chifukwa chiyani kutembenukira mkati kudzapambana?
Meyer, B, SMÃsle ndi M Windisch (2020), "Zophunzira kuchokera ku chiwonongeko cham'mbuyo cha unyolo wamtengo wapatali padziko lonse", UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform, May 2020.
Michel C (2020), "European Strategic Autonomy-The Goal of Our Generation" -Zolankhula za Purezidenti Charles Michel ku Bruegel Think Tank pa Seputembara 28.
Miroudot, S (2020), "Kulimba Mtima ndi Kulimba M'maunyolo Amtengo Wapatali Padziko Lonse: Zokhudza Ndondomeko Zina", akugwira ntchito ku Baldwin, R ndi SJ Evenett (eds) COVID-19 ndi "Trade Policy: Why Win Inward", CEPR Press.
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Seric, A, HGörg, SM?sle ndi M Windisch (2020), "Kuwongolera COVID-19: Momwe mliriwu ukusokonezera maunyolo amtengo wapatali padziko lonse lapansi", UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform, Epulo.
1Â nkhokwe ya "Global Trade Alert" ili ndi ndondomeko monga miyeso ya tariff, ndalama zogulira kunja, njira zogulitsira zokhudzana ndi malonda, ndi njira zodzitetezera zomwe zingakhudze malonda akunja.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jan-07-2021