Icyorezo cya Covid-19 cyerekanye intege nke z'imiyoboro y'ubucuruzi ku isi ishimangira urunigi rw'agaciro ku isi.Kubera ubwiyongere bw’ibisabwa hamwe n’inzitizi nshya z’ubucuruzi zashyizweho, ihungabana rya mbere ry’itangwa ry’ibicuruzwa by’ubuvuzi bikomeye byatumye abafata ibyemezo ku isi hose bibaza niba igihugu cyabo gishingiye ku bihugu bitanga amasoko ndetse n’imiyoboro mpuzamahanga itanga umusaruro.Iyi nkingi izaganira ku buryo burambuye Ubushinwa nyuma y’icyorezo nyuma y’icyorezo, kandi bizera ko igisubizo cyacyo gishobora gutanga ibimenyetso by’ejo hazaza h’urunigi rw’agaciro ku isi.
Urunigi rw'agaciro muri iki gihe rukora neza, rwumwuga kandi rurahuzwa, ariko kandi rushobora kwibasirwa cyane ningaruka zisi.Icyorezo cya Covid-19 ni gihamya isobanutse yibi.Mu gihe Ubushinwa ndetse n’ubukungu bw’ibindi bihugu bya Aziya byibasiwe n’icyorezo cya virusi, uruhande rw’itangwa rwahagaritswe mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2020. Amaherezo virusi yaje gukwira isi yose, bituma ubucuruzi buhagarara mu bihugu bimwe na bimwe.Isi yose (Seric et al. 2020).Isenyuka ry’itangwa ry’isoko ryatumye abafata ibyemezo mu bihugu byinshi bakemura ikibazo cyo kwihaza mu bukungu no gushyiraho ingamba zo guhangana neza n’ingaruka ku isi, kabone niyo byaba biterwa no gukora neza no kuzamura umusaruro wazanywe n’isi yose (Michel 2020, Evenett 2020) .
Gukemura iki kibazo cyo kwihaza, cyane cyane mu bijyanye n’ubukungu bushingiye ku Bushinwa, byatumye habaho amakimbirane ya politiki, nko kongera ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi bitarenze Ukuboza 2020 (Evenett na Fritz 2020).Muri 2020, ingamba nshya zigera ku 1.800 zashyizwe mu bikorwa.Ibi birenga kimwe cya kabiri cy’umubare w’amakimbirane y’ubucuruzi hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika kandi icyiciro gishya cyo gukumira ibicuruzwa cyakajije umurego mu myaka ibiri ishize (Ishusho 1).1 Nubwo hafashwe ingamba nshya zo kwishyira ukizana mu bucuruzi cyangwa hari ingamba z’ubucuruzi zihutirwa zahagaritswe muri iki gihe, ikoreshwa ry’ingamba z’ivangura rishingiye ku ivangura ryarenze ingamba zo kwishyira ukizana.
Icyitonderwa: Inkomoko yamakuru y'ibarurishamibare nyuma ya raporo iratinda guhinduka: Global Trade Alert, igishushanyo cyakuwe mubikorwa bya Analytics yinganda
Ubushinwa bufite umubare munini w’ivangura rishingiye ku bucuruzi no kwishyira ukizana mu bucuruzi mu gihugu icyo ari cyo cyose: mu bikorwa 7,634 by’ubucuruzi bivangura byashyizwe mu bikorwa guhera mu Gushyingo 2008 kugeza mu ntangiriro za Ukuboza 2020, hafi 3.300 (43%), na 2.715 Mu bucuruzi, 1,315 (48%) yashyize mu bikorwa ibikorwa byo kwishyira ukizana mu gihe kimwe (Ishusho 2).Mu rwego rwo kongera ubushyamirane mu bucuruzi hagati y’Ubushinwa na Amerika muri 2018-19, ugereranije n’ibindi bihugu, Ubushinwa bwahuye n’ubucuruzi bw’ubucuruzi bukabije, bwarushijeho gukaza umurego mu gihe cya Covid-19.
Igicapo 2 Umubare w’ibikorwa bya politiki y’ubucuruzi byatewe n’ibihugu byibasiwe kuva mu Gushyingo 2008 kugeza mu ntangiriro za Ukuboza 2020
Icyitonderwa: Iyi shusho yerekana ibihugu 5 byagaragaye cyane.Tanga imibare yatinze.Inkomoko: “Global Trade Alert”, ibishushanyo byakuwe mubikorwa byo gusesengura inganda.
Ihungabana ry’isoko rya Covid-19 ritanga amahirwe atigeze abaho yo kugerageza kwihanganira urunigi rw’agaciro ku isi.Imibare y’ubucuruzi n’ibicuruzwa biva mu gihe cy’icyorezo byerekana ko ihungabana ry’ibicuruzwa mu ntangiriro za 2020 ryabaye igihe gito (Meyer et al., 2020), kandi urwego rwagutse rw’agaciro ku isi ruhuza ibigo byinshi n’ubukungu bisa nkaho byibuze Kuri runaka urugero, ifite ubushobozi bwo guhangana n’ubucuruzi n’ubukungu (Miroudot 2020).
Ibikoresho bya RWI byinjira.Kurugero, Ikigo cya Leibniz gishinzwe ubushakashatsi mu bukungu n’ikigo gishinzwe gutwara ibicuruzwa n’ubukungu n’ibikoresho (ISL) bavuze ko igihe icyorezo cy’isi cyatangiraga, ihungabana rikomeye ry’ubucuruzi ku isi ryabanje kwibasira ibyambu by’Ubushinwa hanyuma bikwira mu bindi byambu ku isi (RWI 2020) .Icyakora, icyerekezo cya RWI / ISL cyerekanye kandi ko ibyambu by’Ubushinwa byakize vuba, bigaruka ku rwego rw’icyorezo muri Werurwe 2020, kandi bikomeza gukomera nyuma yo gusubira inyuma gato muri Mata 2020 (Ishusho 3).Ironderero ryerekana kandi kwiyongera kubintu byinjira.Kubindi byambu byose (bitari Abashinwa), nubwo uku gukira kwatangiye nyuma kandi ni intege nke kurenza Ubushinwa.
Icyitonderwa: Indangagaciro ya RWI / ISL ishingiye ku bikoresho bikoreshwa mu bikoresho byakusanyirijwe ku byambu 91 ku isi.Ibyo byambu bigira uruhare runini mu gutwara ibintu (60%).Kubera ko ibicuruzwa byubucuruzi byisi bitwarwa ahanini nubwato bwa kontineri, iki cyerekezo gishobora gukoreshwa nkikimenyetso cyambere cyiterambere ryubucuruzi mpuzamahanga.Indangantego ya RWI / ISL ikoresha 2008 nkumwaka shingiro, kandi umubare uhinduka ibihe.Leibniz Institute of Economics / Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.Imbonerahamwe yakuwe ku mbuga zisesengura inganda.
Ikintu gisa nacyo cyagaragaye mubikorwa byo gukora isi.Ingamba zikomeye zo gukumira virusi zishobora kubanza kwibasira umusaruro n’umusaruro w’Ubushinwa, ariko iki gihugu nacyo cyasubukuye ibikorwa by’ubukungu vuba bishoboka.Muri Kamena 2020, umusaruro wacyo wongeye kwiyongera ku rwego rw’icyorezo kandi ukomeza kwiyongera kuva icyo gihe (Ishusho 4).Ikwirakwizwa rya Covid-19 ku rwego mpuzamahanga, nyuma y'amezi abiri, umusaruro mu bindi bihugu wagabanutse.Iterambere ry'ubukungu bw'ibi bihugu risa naho ritinda cyane ugereranije n'Ubushinwa.Amezi abiri nyuma y’ibicuruzwa by’Ubushinwa bigarutse ku rwego rw’ibyorezo, isi yose iracyari inyuma.
Icyitonderwa: Aya makuru akoresha 2015 nkumwaka shingiro, kandi amakuru arahinduka ibihe.Inkomoko: UNIDO, ibishushanyo byakuwe mubikorwa byo gusesengura inganda.
Ugereranije n’ibindi bihugu, ubukungu bw’Ubushinwa bugaragara cyane ku rwego rw’inganda.Imbonerahamwe ikurikira irerekana impinduka z’umwaka ku musaruro w’inganda eshanu ziyongera cyane mu Bushinwa muri Nzeri 2020, zose zikaba zinjijwe cyane mu nganda z’agaciro ku isi (Ishusho 5).Mu gihe ubwiyongere bw'umusaruro wa bane muri izi nganda eshanu mu Bushinwa (kure) bwarenze 10%, umusaruro ujyanye n'ubukungu bwateye imbere wagabanutseho hejuru ya 5% mu gihe kimwe.Nubwo igipimo cya mudasobwa zikora, ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki na optique mu bihugu byateye imbere mu nganda (ndetse no ku isi hose) byagutse muri Nzeri 2020, umuvuduko w’iterambere wacyo uracyakomeye kurusha Ubushinwa.
Icyitonderwa: Iyi mbonerahamwe irerekana impinduka ziva mu nganda eshanu ziyongera cyane mu Bushinwa muri Nzeri 2020. Inkomoko: UNIDO, yakuwe ku mbonerahamwe y’isesengura ry’inganda.
Ubushinwa bwihuse kandi bukomeye busa nkaho bugaragaza ko amasosiyete y’Abashinwa arwanya ihungabana ry’isi kurusha andi masosiyete menshi.Mubyukuri, urunigi rw'agaciro amasosiyete y'Abashinwa abigiramo uruhare rusa nkaho arushijeho gukomera.Imwe mu mpamvu zishobora kuba ari uko Ubushinwa bwashoboye gutsinda vuba ikwirakwizwa rya Covid-19 mu karere.Indi mpamvu irashobora kuba nuko igihugu gifite urunigi rwagaciro rwakarere kurusha ibindi bihugu.Mu myaka yashize, Ubushinwa bwahindutse ishoramari ry’ishoramari n’umufatanyabikorwa w’ubucuruzi mu bihugu duturanye, cyane cyane Umuryango w’ibihugu byo mu majyepfo y’iburasirazuba bwa Aziya (ASEAN).Yibanze kandi ku gushyiraho umubano w’ubukungu mpuzamahanga muri “quartier” binyuze mu mishyikirano no gusoza gahunda ya “Umukandara n’umuhanda” hamwe n’ubufatanye bw’ubukungu bw’akarere (RCEP).
Duhereye ku makuru y’ubucuruzi, dushobora kubona neza ubufatanye bwimbitse bw’ubukungu hagati y’Ubushinwa n’ibihugu bya ASEAN.Dukurikije imibare ya UNCTAD, Itsinda rya ASEAN ryabaye umufatanyabikorwa ukomeye mu bucuruzi mu Bushinwa, urenga Amerika ndetse n’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi2 (Ishusho 6).
Icyitonderwa: Ubucuruzi bwibicuruzwa bivuga igiteranyo cy’ibicuruzwa biva hanze n’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga.Inkomoko: UNCTAD, ibishushanyo byakuwe kuri "Ihuriro Ryisesengura Inganda".
ASEAN yarushijeho kuba ingenzi nk'akarere kagenewe kohereza ibicuruzwa hanze.Mu mpera za 2019, umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere bwa buri mwaka uzarenga 20%.Iterambere ry’ubwiyongere rirenze cyane ibyo Ubushinwa bwohereza muri ASEAN.Andi masoko menshi akomeye ku isi arimo Amerika, Ubuyapani, n’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi (Ishusho 7).
Nubwo Ubushinwa bwohereza muri ASEAN nabwo bwagize ingaruka ku ngamba zo gukumira zifitanye isano na Covid-19.Kugabanuka hafi 5% mu ntangiriro za 2020-ntibagira ingaruka nke ugereranije n’Ubushinwa bwohereza muri Amerika, Ubuyapani n’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi.Igihe ibicuruzwa by’Ubushinwa byagarukaga mu kibazo cya Werurwe 2020, ibyoherezwa muri ASEAN byongeye kwiyongera, byiyongeraho hejuru ya 5% muri Werurwe 2020 / Mata 2020, no hagati ya Nyakanga 2020 na 2020. Habaho kwiyongera buri kwezi kurenga 10% hagati Nzeri.
Icyitonderwa: Ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga byombi bibarwa ku biciro biriho.Kuva muri Nzeri / Ukwakira 2019 kugeza Nzeri / Ukwakira 2020, inkomoko y'impinduka ku mwaka-mwaka: Ubuyobozi rusange bwa gasutamo ya Repubulika y'Ubushinwa.Igishushanyo cyakuwe kumurongo wo gusesengura inganda.
Biteganijwe ko iyi gahunda igaragara y’akarere k’ubucuruzi bw’Ubushinwa izagira ingaruka ku buryo bwo kongera guhindura urwego rw’agaciro ku isi kandi bikagira ingaruka ku bafatanyabikorwa b’ubucuruzi gakondo mu Bushinwa.
Niba urunigi rwihariye kandi rufitanye isano nuruhererekane rwagaciro rwisi rwatatanye kandi rutandukanijwe mukarere, tuvuge iki kubiciro byubwikorezi - hamwe n’ingaruka ziterwa n’isi yose hamwe n’ihungabana ry’ibicuruzwa?Hashobora kugabanuka (Javorcik 2020).Nyamara, urunigi rukomeye rwakarere rushobora kubuza ibigo nubukungu gukwirakwiza neza umutungo muke, kongera umusaruro cyangwa kumenya ubushobozi buhanitse binyuze mubuhanga.Byongeye kandi, kwishingikiriza cyane kubutaka bugarukira bishobora kugabanya umubare wamasosiyete akora inganda.Guhinduka bigabanya ubushobozi bwabo bwo kubona amasoko nandi masoko mugihe byatewe nibihugu cyangwa uturere runaka (Arriola 2020).
Impinduka ziva muri Amerika ziva mubushinwa zirashobora kubigaragaza.Kubera ikibazo cy’ubucuruzi bw’Ubushinwa na Amerika, ibicuruzwa bitumizwa muri Amerika mu Bushinwa byagabanutse mu mezi ya mbere ya 2020. Icyakora, kugabanya kwishingikiriza ku Bushinwa kugira ngo bishyigikire urunigi rw’agaciro mu karere ntibizarinda amasosiyete yo muri Amerika ingaruka z’ubukungu bw’icyorezo.Mubyukuri, ibicuruzwa bitumizwa muri Amerika byiyongereye muri Werurwe na Mata 2020-cyane cyane ibikoresho byo kwa muganga -?Ubushinwa bwihatira guhaza ibyifuzo by’imbere mu gihugu (Nyakanga 2020).
Nubwo urunigi rw’agaciro ku isi rwerekanye urwego runaka rwo guhangana n’ihungabana ry’ubukungu bw’isi yose, ihungabana ry’agateganyo (ariko riracyari ryinshi) ryatumye ibihugu byinshi byongera gutekereza ku nyungu zishobora guturuka mu karere cyangwa mu karere k’urunigi rw’agaciro.Iterambere rya vuba hamwe nimbaraga ziyongera mubukungu bugenda bwiyongera ugereranije nubukungu bwateye imbere mubibazo byubucuruzi n’imishyikirano ugereranije n’ubukungu bugenda buzamuka bituma bigora guhanura uburyo bwo guhindura neza urwego rw’agaciro ku isi., Kuvugurura no kuvugurura ibintu.Nubwo itangizwa ry’urukingo rwiza mu mpera za 2020 no mu ntangiriro za 2021 rishobora kugabanya uruhare rwa Covid-19 mu bukungu bw’isi, gukomeza gukumira ibicuruzwa n’ubucuruzi bwa geopolitike byerekana ko isi idashoboka gusubira muri “bucuruzi” kandi bisanzwe bisanzwe???.Haracyari inzira ndende yo kunyuramo mugihe kizaza.
Icyitonderwa cy'umwanditsi: Iyi nkingi yatangajwe bwa mbere ku ya 17 Ukuboza 2020 na UNIDO y’inganda zisesengura inganda (IAP), ikigo cy’ubumenyi bwa digitale gihuza isesengura ry’impuguke, iyerekwa ry’amakuru, hamwe no kuvuga inkuru ku ngingo zijyanye no guteza imbere inganda.Ibitekerezo byagaragaye muri iyi nkingi nibyo byumwanditsi kandi ntabwo byanze bikunze byerekana ibitekerezo bya UNIDO cyangwa indi miryango umwanditsi arimo.
Arriola, C, P Kowalski na F van Tongeren (2020), “Kubona urwego rw’agaciro mu isi nyuma ya COVID bizongera igihombo cy’ubukungu kandi bizatuma ubukungu bw’imbere mu gihugu bugira intege nke”, VoxEU.org, 15 Ugushyingo.
Evenett, SJ (2020), “Ubwongoshwe bw'Ubushinwa: COVID-19, Urunigi rwogutanga amasoko na politiki rusange mu bicuruzwa by'ibanze”, Ikinyamakuru mpuzamahanga cy’ubucuruzi 3: 408 429.
Evenett, SJ, na J Fritz (2020), “Kwangiriza ingwate: Ingaruka zambukiranya imipaka zo guteza imbere politiki y’ibyorezo bikabije”, VoxEU.org, 17 Ugushyingo.
Javorcik, B (2020), “Ku isi nyuma ya COVID-19, imiyoboro yo gutanga ku isi izaba itandukanye”, i Baldwin, R na S Evenett (eds) COVID-19 na politiki y’ubucuruzi: Itangazamakuru rya CEPR rivuga impamvu Guhindura imbere bizagenda neza?
Meyer, B, SMÃsle na M Windisch (2020), “Amasomo yo kuva kera kwangiza urunigi rw’agaciro ku isi”, Ihuriro ry’isesengura ry’inganda UNIDO, Gicurasi 2020.
Michel C (2020), “Ubwigenge Bw’Uburayi-Intego y'Igisekuru Cyacu” -Ijambo rya Perezida Charles Michel muri Bruegel Think Tank ku ya 28 Nzeri.
Miroudot, S (2020), “Kwihangana no gukomera mu munyururu w’agaciro ku isi: Bimwe mu bikorwa bya Politiki”, ukorera muri Baldwin, R na SJ Evenett (eds) COVID-19 na “Politiki y’ubucuruzi: Kuki utsindira imbere”, Itangazamakuru rya CEPR.
Qi L (2020), “Ubushinwa bwohereza muri Amerika bwabonye ubuzima buva ku cyifuzo cya coronavirus”, Ikinyamakuru The Wall Street Journal, ku ya 9 Ukwakira.
Seric, A, HGörg, SM?sle na M Windisch (2020), “Gucunga COVID-19: Uburyo icyorezo gihungabanya urunigi rw’agaciro ku isi”, Ihuriro ry’isesengura ry’inganda UNIDO, Mata.
1Â Ububiko bwa “Global Trade Alert” bukubiyemo ingamba za politiki nk'ingamba z’amahoro, inkunga zoherezwa mu mahanga, ingamba zishingiye ku ishoramari, hamwe n’ubucuruzi bwisanzuye mu bucuruzi / ingamba zo gukingira zishobora kugira ingaruka ku bucuruzi bw’amahanga.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama-07-2021