Denda reCovid-19 rakafumura hutete hwemambure ekutengeserana pasi rose ayo anotsigisa cheni dzepasi rose.Nekuda kwekuwedzera kwekuda uye zvipingamupinyi zvichangobva kugadzirwa, kukanganisa kwekutanga kwekutengesa kwezvigadzirwa zvekurapa zvakakosha kwaita kuti vanogadzira mitemo pasi rese vabvunze kusavimbika kwenyika yavo kune vatengesi vekunze uye network dzekugadzira dzepasirese.Iyi koramu ichakurukura kupora kweChina mushure medenda zvakadzama, uye nekutenda kuti mhinduro yayo inogona kupa zviratidzo kune ramangwana repasi rose kukosha maketani.
Ikozvino kukosha kwepasirese cheni inoshanda, inyanzvi uye yakabatana, asi ivo vari panjodzi zvakanyanya kune njodzi dzepasirese.Denda reCovid-19 chiratidzo chakajeka cheizvi.Sezvo China nedzimwe hupfumi hweAsia dzakarohwa nekuputika kwehutachiona, chikamu chekugovera chakakanganiswa muchikamu chekutanga cha2020. Hutachiona hwakazopararira pasi rose, zvichikonzera kuvharwa kwebhizinesi mune dzimwe nyika.Nyika yese (Seric et al. 2020).Kudonha kwakazotevera kwaita kuti vagadziri vemitemo munyika dzakawanda vatarise kukosha kwekuzvimirira kwehupfumi uye kugadzira nzira dzekupindura zvirinani kunjodzi dzepasirese, kunyangwe nemubhadharo wekuita zvakanaka uye kuvandudzwa kwechigadzirwa kwakaunzwa nekudyidzana kwepasirese (Michel 2020, Evenett 2020) .
Kugadzirisa ichi chinodiwa chekuzviriritira, kunyanya maererano nekutsamira kwehupfumi kuChina, kwakonzera kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika, sekukwira kwekupindira kwekutengeserana kutanga kwaZvita 2020 (Evenett naFritz 2020).Pakazosvika 2020, zvinoda kusvika chiuru nemazana masere ezvekupindira matsva akaitwa.Iyi inopfuura hafu yehuwandu hwemakakatanwa ekutengeserana eSino-US uye kutenderera kutsva kwekuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana kwakawedzera mumakore maviri apfuura (Mufananidzo 1).1 Kunyangwe matanho matsva ekutengeserana akatorwa kana zvimwe zvirambidzo zvekutengeserana zvechimbichimbi zvakadzimwa panguva iyi, kushandiswa kwemaitiro ekusarura ekutengeserana kwakapfuura matanho ekusunungura.
Ongorora: Kwainobva data rehuwandu mushure mekunge mushumo wanonoka kugadzirisa: Global Trade Alert, girafu inotorwa kubva kuIndustrial Analytics Platform.
China ine nhamba yakakura kwazvo yerusarura rwekutengeserana rwakanyoreswa uye kupindira kwekutengeserana mune chero nyika: kunze kwe7,634 kusarura kupindira kwekutengeserana kwakaitwa kubva munaNovember 2008 kusvika kutanga kwaZvita 2020, vangangoita zviuru zvitatu nemazana matatu (43%), uye 2,715 Pakati pevatengesi, 1,315 (48%). yakashandisa kupindira kwekusununguka panguva imwe chete (Mufananidzo 2).Mumamiriro ezvinhu ekuwedzera kusawirirana kwekutengeserana pakati peChina neUnited States muna 2018-19, zvichienzaniswa nedzimwe nyika, China yakatarisana nezvirambidzo zvakanyanya zvekutengeserana, izvo zvawedzera kuwedzera panguva yeCovid-19 dambudziko.
Mufananidzo 2 Nhamba yekupindira kwemutemo wekutengeserana nenyika dzakakanganisika kubva munaNovember 2008 kusvika kutanga kwaZvita 2020.
Cherechedza: Iyi girafu inoratidza nyika 5 dzakafumurwa zvakanyanya.Report lag-adjusted statistics.Kwakabva: "Global Trade Alert", magirafu anotorwa kubva kuindasitiri yekuongorora chikuva.
Kuvhiringidzwa kweCovid-19 yekugovera cheni kunopa mukana usati wamboitika wekuyedza kusimba kwemaketani epasi rose.Dhata pamusoro pekutengesa kuyerera uye kubuda kwekugadzira panguva yedenda rinoratidza kuti kukanganiswa kweketani mukutanga kwa2020 kwaive kwenguva pfupi (Meyer et al., 2020), uye ikozvino yakawedzera kukosha kwepasirese inobatanidza makambani mazhinji nehupfumi hunoratidzika kunge huri kune imwe. chiyero, inokwanisa kumirisana nekutengeserana uye kuvhunduka kwehupfumi (Miroudot 2020).
RWI's container throughput index.Semuenzaniso, Leibniz Institute for Economic Research uye Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) yakataura kuti pakatanga denda repasi rose, kukanganisa kwakanyanya kwekutengeserana kwepasirese kwakatanga kurova zviteshi zveChinese ndokuzopararira kune zvimwe zviteshi zvepasirese (RWI 2020) .Nekudaro, iyo RWI / ISL index yakaratidzawo kuti zviteshi zveChinese zvakapora nekukurumidza, zvichidzokera kune pre-denda munaKurume 2020, uye nekusimbaradzwa mushure mekumbodzokera kumashure muna Kubvumbi 2020 (Mufananidzo 3).Iyo indekisi zvakare inoreva kuwedzera kwemidziyo yekubuda.Kune mamwe ese (asiri maChinese) madoko, kunyangwe kudzoreredza uku kwakatanga gare gare uye hakuna kusimba kupfuura China.
Tarira: Indekisi yeRWI/ISL yakavakirwa pamudziyo wekubata data wakaunganidzwa kubva kumadoko makumi mapfumbamwe nerimwe pasi rose.Aya madoko anomiririra akawanda epasi rose ekutakura midziyo (60%).Sezvo zvinhu zvekutengesa pasi rose zvichinyanya kutakurwa nengarava dzemidziyo, iyi index inogona kushandiswa sechiratidzo chekutanga chekusimudzira kwekutengeserana kwenyika.Indekisi yeRWI/ISL inoshandisa 2008 segore rekutanga, uye nhamba yacho inogadziriswa mwaka.Leibniz Institute of Economics/Institute of Shipping Economics uye Logistics.Chati yacho inotorwa kubva pachikuva chekuongorora maindasitiri.
Muitiro wakafanana wakacherechedzwa mukugadzirwa kwenyika.Matanho akasimba ekuchengetedza hutachiona anogona kutanga arova kugadzirwa uye kubuda kweChina, asi nyika yakatanga zvakare zviitiko zvehupfumi nekukasira.Pakazosvika Chikumi 2020, kugadzira kwayo kwakawedzera kusvika kune pre-denda mazinga uye yakaramba ichikura kubva ipapo (Mufananidzo 4).Nekupararira kweCovid-19 pasi rese, ingangoita mwedzi miviri gare gare, kugadzirwa mune dzimwe nyika kwakadzikira.Kuvandudzwa kwehupfumi hwenyika idzi kunoratidzika kunge kuri kunonoka kupfuura kweChina.Mwedzi miviri mushure mekubuda kwekugadzira kweChina kwadzokera kune pre-denda, nyika yese ichiri kumashure.
Ongorora: Iyi data inoshandisa 2015 segore rekutanga, uye iyo data inogadziriswa mwaka.Kwakabva: UNIDO, magirafu anotorwa kubva kuIndustrial Analytics Platform.
Kuenzaniswa nedzimwe nyika, kusimba kwehupfumi hweChina kuri pachena zvakanyanya padanho reindasitiri.Chati iri pazasi inoratidza shanduko yegore negore mukubuda kwemaindasitiri mashanu ari kukurumidza kukurumidza eChina munaGunyana 2020, ese akabatanidzwa zvakanyanya mukugadzira kukosha kwepasi rose (Mufananidzo 5).Nepo kukura kwemaindasitiri mana emashanu aya kuChina (kure) kwakapfuura 10%, hupfumi hwakasimukira hwakadonha neinopfuura 5% panguva imwe cheteyo.Kunyangwe chiyero chekugadzira makomputa, zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi uye zvemaziso munyika dzakabudirira (uye kutenderera pasirese) zvakawedzera munaGunyana 2020, kukura kwayo kuchiri kushoma kupfuura China.
Cherechedza: Chati iyi inoratidza kuchinja kwezvakabuda mumaindasitiri mashanu ari kukura nekukurumidza muChina munaGunyana 2020. Kwakabva: UNIDO, yakatorwa pachati yeIndustrial Analysis Platform.
Kukurumidza uye kwakasimba kupora kweChina kunoratidzika kunge kunoratidza kuti makambani eChinese anopokana nekukatyamadzwa kwepasirese kupfuura mamwe makambani mazhinji.Muchokwadi, kukosha kweketani umo makambani eChinese akabatanidzwa zvakanyanya anoita seakanyanya kusimba.Chimwe chezvikonzero chingave chekuti China yakabudirira kukurumidza kumisa kupararira kweCovid-19 munharaunda.Chimwe chikonzero chinogona kunge chiri chekuti nyika ine zvakawanda zvedunhu kukosha kweketani kupfuura dzimwe nyika.Kwemakore apfuura, China yave nzvimbo inoyevedza yekudyara uye inotengeserana nenyika dzakavakidzana, kunyanya iyo Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN).Inotarisawo pakugadzirisa hukama hwehupfumi hwenyika mukati me "nharaunda" yayo kuburikidza nekutaurirana uye kupedzisa kwe "Belt uye Road" chirongwa uye Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Kubva pane data rekutengeserana, tinogona kuona zvakajeka kubatanidzwa kwehupfumi pakati peChina nenyika dzeASEAN.Zvinoenderana nedata reUNCTAD, Boka reASEAN rave mubatanidzwa mukuru weChina wekutengesa, kupfuura United States neEuropean Union2 (Mufananidzo 6).
Ongorora: Kutengeserana kwezvinhu kunoreva huwandu hwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika uye kutengeswa kunze kwenyika.Kwakabva: UNCTAD, magirafu anotorwa kubva ku "Industrial Analysis Platform".
ASEAN yave kuwedzera kukosha senzvimbo inotarirwa kutengesa kunze kwedenda.Pakupera kwa2019, kukura kwepagore kuchapfuura 20%.Mwero wekukura uyu wakakwira zvakanyanya kudarika zvinotengeswa neChina kune ASEAN.Mimwe misika mikuru yenyika inosanganisira United States, Japan, uye European Union (Mufananidzo 7).
Kunyangwe zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuChina kuASEAN zvakakanganiswawo nematanho emidziyo akabatana neCovid-19.Yakaderedzwa ne5% pakutanga kwa2020-havana kukanganiswa pane zvinotengeswa neChina kuUS, Japan neEU.Pakazobuda kugadzirwa kweChina kubva mudambudziko munaKurume 2020, kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuASEAN kwakawedzera zvakare, zvichiwedzera nezvikamu zvishanu kubva muzana munaKurume 2020/Kubvumbi 2020, uye pakati paChikunguru 2020 na2020. Pakave nekuwedzera kwemwedzi kunodarika gumi Gunyana.
Cherechedza: Bilateral exports inoverengwa pamitengo iripo.Kubva munaGunyana/Gumiguru 2019 kusvika Gunyana/Gumiguru 2020, sosi yekuchinja-kwegore: General Administration yeCustoms yePeople's Republic of China.Girafu inotorwa kubva kuindasitiri yekuongorora chikuva.
Zvinotarisirwa kuti izvi zviri pachena zvekusarudzika kwemaitiro ekutengeserana kweChina zvichave nemhedzisiro pakugadzirisazve kukosha kwepasi rose uye kuve nekugogodza-pamhedzisiro kune yechinyakare kutengeserana vanodyidzana neChina.
Kana macheni ane hunyanzvi uye akabatana epasi rose akapararira zvakanyanya uye akaiswa dunhu, ko nezvemitengo yekufambisa - uye kusadzivirirwa kwenjodzi dzepasirese uye kukanganisa kweketani?Inogona kuderedzwa (Javorcik 2020).Nekudaro, macheni akasimba edunhu anogona kudzivirira makambani nehupfumi kugovera zvine hungwaru zviwanikwa, kuwedzera kugadzirwa kana kuona kugona kwepamusoro kuburikidza nehunyanzvi.Pamusoro pezvo, kuvimba kwakanyanya nenzvimbo shoma dzenzvimbo kunogona kuderedza huwandu hwemakambani anogadzira.Kuchinjika kunodzikamisa kugona kwavo kuwana mamwe masosi uye misika kana yakanganiswa nenyika dzakati kana matunhu (Arriola 2020).
Shanduko dzezvinotengeswa kubva kuUS kubva kuChina zvinogona kuratidza izvi.Nekuda kwekunetsana kwekutengeserana kweSino-US, kutengwa kweUS kubva kuChina kwave kudzikira mumwedzi mishoma yekutanga ya2020. Zvisineyi, kuderedza kuvimba neChina kuti itsigire macheni akakosha ematunhu hakuzodzivirire makambani eUS kubva mukukanganisa kwehupfumi hwedenda.Muchokwadi, zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zveUS zvakakwira munaKurume naKubvumbi 2020-kunyanya zvekurapa -?China iri kuedza kuzadzisa zvinodiwa mudzimba (Chikunguru 2020).
Kunyange zvazvo cheni dzepasi rose dzakaratidza kumwe kusimba mukutarisana nekukatyamadzwa kwehupfumi hwenyika, kwechinguvana (asi kuchiri kwakakura) kukanganisika kwekupa kwakakurudzira nyika zhinji kuti dzitarisezve mabhenefiti angangove anowanikwa munharaunda kana kugariswa kwemaketani ekukosha.Izvi zviri kuitika munguva pfupi yapfuura uye kukura kwesimba rehupfumi huri kusimukira maererano nehupfumi hwakasimukira munyaya dzekutengeserana uye nhaurirano dzine chekuita nehupfumi huri kusimukira zvinoita kuti zviome kufanotaura kuti zvingagadziriswe sei zvakanaka cheni yeukoshi hwepasi rose., Kuronga patsva uye kurongazve.Kunyangwe kuunzwa kwemushonga unoshanda mukupera kwa2020 uye kutanga kwa2021 kunogona kusunungura pesvedzero yeCovid-19 muhupfumi hwenyika, kuenderera mberi kwekuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana uye geopolitical maitiro anoratidza kuti nyika haine mukana wekudzoka ku "bhizinesi" mamiriro uye zvakangofanana???.Pachine rwendo rurefu rwekufamba mune ramangwana.
Chiziviso chemupepeti: Iyi koramu yakatanga kuburitswa muna Zvita 17, 2020 neUNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform (IAP), nzvimbo yeruzivo yedhijitari inosanganisa kuongororwa kwenyanzvi, kuona data, uye kutaura nyaya pane zvine chekuita nekusimudzira maindasitiri.Maonero anoratidzwa muchikamu chino ndeaya emunyori uye haafanire kuratidza maonero eUNIDO kana mamwe masangano ayo munyori ari.
Arriola, C, P Kowalski naF van Tongeren (2020), "Kuwana kukosha kweiyo post-COVID pasirese kuchawedzera kurasikirwa kwehupfumi uye kuita kuti hupfumi hwepamba huve munjodzi", VoxEU.org, 15 Mbudzi.
Evenett, SJ (2020), "China's Whispers: COVID-19, Global Supply Chain uye Public Policy muBasic Commodities", International Business Policy Journal 3:408 429.
Evenett, SJ, naJ Fritz (2020), "Collateral kukuvara: Muchinjiko-muganho mhedzisiro yeakanyanya denda rekusimudzira mutemo", VoxEU.org, Mbudzi 17.
Javorcik, B (2020), "Munyika mushure meCCIDID-19, cheni dzepasi rose dzichave dzakasiyana", muBaldwin, R uye S Evenett (eds) COVID-19 uye mutemo wekutengesa: CEPR Press inoti nei Kutendeuka mukati kuchizobudirira?
Meyer, B, SMÃsle naM Windisch (2020), "Zvidzidzo kubva mukuparadzwa kwakapfuura kwemaketani epasi rose", UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform, Chivabvu 2020.
Michel C (2020), "European Strategic Autonomy-Chinangwa chechizvarwa Chedu" - Hurukuro neMutungamiri Charles Michel paBruegel Funga Tangi musi waGunyana 28.
Miroudot, S (2020), "Resilience and Robustness in Global Value Chains: Some Policy Implications", kushanda muBaldwin, R uye SJ Evenett (eds) COVID-19 uye "Trade Policy: Why Win Inward", CEPR Press.
Qi L (2020), "Zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuChina kuUS zvakawana nzira yehupenyu kubva kukuda kunoenderana nekoronavirus", The Wall Street Journal, Gumiguru 9.
Seric, A, HGörg, SM?sle uye M Windisch (2020), "Kugadzirisa COVID-19: Denda iri kukanganisa sei cheni dzepasi rose", UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform, Kubvumbi.
1Â Iyo "Global Trade Alert" dhatabhesi ine kupindira kwemutemo senge tariff matanho, rubatsiro rwekunze, kutengeserana-ane chekuita nekudyara matanho, uye kutengeserana kusununguka / matanho ekudzivirira anogona kukanganisa kutengeserana kwekunze.
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-07-2021