Seoa sa Covid-19 se pepesitse ho fokola ha marang-rang a khoebo a lefats'e a ts'ehetsang liketane tsa boleng ba lefats'e.Ka lebaka la tlhokahalo e ntseng e eketseha le litšitiso tse sa tsoa thehoa tsa khoebo, tšitiso ea pele ea phepelo ea lihlahisoa tsa bohlokoa tsa bongaka e entse hore baetsi ba melaoana lefatšeng ka bophara ba belaelle ho its'etleha ha naha ea bona ho barekisi ba kantle ho naha le marangrang a tlhahiso ea machabeng.Kholomo ena e tla tšohla ka ho hlaka pholiso ea lefu la seoa la China ka mor'a lefu la seoa, 'me e lumele hore karabelo ea eona e ka fana ka leseli ho bokamoso ba liketane tsa boleng ba lefats'e.
Liketane tsa hona joale tsa boleng ba lefats'e li sebetsa hantle, li sebetsa hantle ebile li hokahane, empa hape li kotsing e kholo ea likotsi tsa lefats'e.Seoa sa Covid-19 ke bopaki bo hlakileng ba sena.Ha moruo oa China le linaha tse ling tsa Asia li angoa ke seoa sa vaerase, lehlakore la phepelo le ile la sitisoa kotareng ea pele ea 2020. Qetellong kokoana-hloko e ile ea ata lefatšeng ka bophara, ea baka ho koaloa ha khoebo linaheng tse ling.Lefatše lohle (Seric et al. 2020).Ho putlama ho latelang ha phepelo ea thepa ho ile ha susumetsa baetsi ba maano linaheng tse ngata ho sebetsana le tlhoko ea ho ikemela moruong le ho theha maano a ho arabela likotsing tsa lefats'e, leha e le ka litšenyehelo tsa katleho le ntlafatso ea tlhahiso e tlisoang ke ho ikopanya ha lichaba tsa lefatše (Michel 2020, Evenett 2020) .
Ho sebetsana le tlhoko ena ea ho iphelisa, haholo-holo mabapi le ho itšetleha ka moruo ho China, ho lebisitse tsitsipanong ea lipolotiki, joalo ka ho eketseha ha litšebelisano tsa khoebo mathoasong a Tšitoe 2020 (Evenett le Fritz 2020).Ka selemo sa 2020, ho se ho kentsoe tšebetsong mehato e ka bang 1,800 ea lithibelo tse ncha.Sena se feta halofo ea palo ea likhohlano tsa khoebo tsa Sino-US le potoloho e ncha ea ts'ireletso ea khoebo e matlafalitsoeng lilemong tse peli tse fetileng (Setšoantšo sa 1).1 Leha mehato e mecha ea tokoloho ea khoebo e ile ea nkuoa kapa lithibelo tse ling tsa khoebo tsa tšohanyetso li hlakotsoe nakong ena, ts'ebeliso ea mehato ea boitshunyako ba khethollo ea khoebo e fetisitse mehato ea tokoloho.
Tlhokomeliso: Mohloli oa lintlha tsa lipalo-palo ka mor'a hore tlaleho e fokotsehe: Tlhokomeliso ea Khoebo ea Lefatše, kerafo e nkiloe Platform ea Industrial Analytics.
China e na le palo e kholo ka ho fetisisa ea khethollo ea khoebo e ngolisitsoeng le mehato ea ho lokoloha ha khoebo naheng efe kapa efe: ho tse 7,634 tse kentsoeng tšebetsong ho tloha ka Pulungoana 2008 ho isa qalong ea Tšitoe 2020, hoo e ka bang 3,300 (43%), le 2,715 Har'a likhoebo, 1,315 (48%). e ile ea kenya ts'ebetsong mekhoa ea ho lokoloha ka nako e tšoanang (Setšoantšo sa 2).Boemong ba likhohlano tse ntseng li eketseha tsa khoebo lipakeng tsa China le United States ka 2018-19, ha li bapisoa le linaha tse ling, China e tobane le lithibelo tse phahameng haholo tsa khoebo, tse ntseng li mpefala le ho feta nakong ea koluoa ea Covid-19.
Setšoantšo sa 2 Palo ea boitshunyako ba leano la khoebo ke linaha tse amehileng ho tloha ka Pulungoana 2008 ho isa qalong ea Tšitoe 2020.
Tlhokomeliso: Kerafo ena e bonts'a linaha tse 5 tse pepesehileng haholo.Tlaleha lipalo-palo tse fetotsoeng.Mohloli: "Tlhokomeliso ea Khoebo ea Lefatše", li-graph li nkiloe sethaleng sa tlhahlobo ea indasteri.
Tšitiso ea ketane ea phepelo ea Covid-19 e fana ka monyetla o neng o e-so ka o bonoa oa ho leka ho tiea ha liketane tsa boleng tsa lefats'e.Lintlha tse mabapi le phallo ea khoebo le tlhahiso ea tlhahiso nakong ea seoa li bonts'a hore tšitiso ea phepelo ea phepelo mathoasong a 2020 e ne e le ea nakoana (Meyer et al., 2020), mme ketane ea boleng bo holimo ea lefats'e e hokahanyang lik'hamphani tse ngata le moruo e bonahala e le bonyane Ho tse ling. tekanyo, e na le bokhoni ba ho mamella likhohlano tsa khoebo le moruo (Miroudot 2020).
Lethathamo la lintlha tsa RWI.Ka mohlala, Leibniz Institute for Economic Research le Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) e boletse hore ha seoa sa lefats'e se qhoma, litšitiso tse matla tsa khoebo ea lefats'e li ile tsa qala ho otla likoung tsa Chaena eaba li namela likoung tse ling lefatšeng (RWI 2020) .Leha ho le joalo, index ea RWI / ISL e boetse e bonts'itse hore likou tsa China li ile tsa fola kapele, tsa khutlela maemong a pele ho seoa ka Hlakubele 2020, mme tsa matlafala le ho feta kamora ho khitla hanyane ka Mmesa 2020 (Setšoantšo sa 3).Lenane le boetse le fana ka maikutlo a ho eketseha ha setshelo.Bakeng sa likou tse ling kaofela (tseo e seng tsa Sechaena), leha ho hlaphoheloa hona ho qalile hamorao mme ho fokola ho feta China.
Tlhokomeliso: Lenane la RWI/ISL le ipapisitse le lintlha tsa ho tšoara lijana tse bokelletsoeng ho tsoa likoung tse 91 lefatšeng ka bophara.Likou tsena li nka karolo ea boholo ba lisebelisoa tsa lefats'e (60%).Kaha thepa ea khoebo ea lefats'e e tsamaisoa haholo ke likepe tsa lik'hontheinara, index ena e ka sebelisoa e le sesupo sa pele sa tsoelo-pele ea khoebo ea machaba.Lenane la RWI/ISL le sebelisa 2008 e le selemo sa motheo, 'me palo e lokisoa ka nako ea selemo.Leibniz Institute of Economics/Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.Chate e nkiloe sethaleng sa tlhahlobo ea indasteri.
Mokhoa o tšoanang o hlokometsoe tlhahisong ea lefatše.Mehato e tiileng ea ho boloka vaerase e kanna ea qala tlhahiso le tlhahiso ea China, empa naha le eona e ile ea qala mesebetsi ea moruo kapele kamoo ho ka khonehang.Ka Phuptjane 2020, tlhahiso ea eona ea tlhahiso e se e fihlile maemong a pele ho seoa mme e ntse e tsoela pele ho hola ho tloha ka nako eo (Setšoantšo sa 4).Ka ho ata ha Covid-19 machabeng, hoo e ka bang likhoeli tse peli hamorao, tlhahiso linaheng tse ling e ile ea fokotseha.Tsoelo-pele ea moruo ea linaha tsena e bonahala e le butle ho feta ea Chaena.Likhoeli tse peli kamora hore tlhahiso ea tlhahiso ea China e khutlele maemong a pele ho seoa, lefats'e lohle le ntse le salletse morao.
Tlhokomeliso: Lintlha tsena li sebelisa 2015 joalo ka selemo sa motheo, 'me lintlha li lokisoa ka nako ea selemo.Mohloli: UNIDO, li-graph li nkiloe ho Industrial Analytics Platform.
Ha ho bapisoa le linaha tse ling, ntlafatso e matla ea moruo oa China e bonahala haholoanyane maemong a indasteri.Chate e ka tlase e bonts'a liphetoho tsa selemo le selemo tlhahisong ea liindasteri tse hlano tse holang ka potlako tsa China ka Loetse 2020, tseo kaofela li kopantsoeng haholo le ketane ea boleng ea lefats'e ea tlhahiso (setšoantšo sa 5).Le hoja kgolo ya diindasteri tse nne ho tse hlano tsa China (hole) e feta 10%, tlhahiso e tsamaellanang ya meruo ya diindaseteri e theohile ka ho feta 5% nakong yona eo.Leha boholo ba likhomphutha tsa tlhahiso, lihlahisoa tsa elektroniki le tsa mahlo linaheng tse tsoetseng pele indastering (le lefats'e ka bophara) li eketsehile ka Loetse 2020, sekhahla sa kholo ea eona se ntse se fokola ho feta China.
Tlhokomeliso: Chate ena e bontša liphetoho tse hlahisoang ke liindasteri tse hlano tse holang ka potlako ho fetisisa Chaena ka Loetse 2020. Mohloli: UNIDO, e nkiloeng chate ea Sethala sa Tlhahlobo ea Liindasteri.
Ho hlaphoheloa ka potlako le ka matla ha China ho bonahala ho bontša hore lik'hamphani tsa Chaena li hanyetsana le litšisinyeho tsa lefatše ho feta lik'hamphani tse ling tse ngata.Ha e le hantle, ketane ea boleng eo lik'hamphani tsa Chaena li amehang ka botebo ho eona e bonahala e le matla haholoanyane.Le leng la mabaka e kanna ea ba hore China e atlehile ho thibela ka potlako ho ata ha Covid-19 sebakeng sa heno.Lebaka le leng e ka ba hore naha e na le liketane tse ngata tsa boleng ho feta linaha tse ling.Ho theosa le lilemo, China e fetohile sebaka se khahlang haholo sa matsete le molekane oa khoebo bakeng sa linaha tsa boahelani, haholo-holo Mokhatlo oa Linaha tsa Asia Boroa-bochabela (ASEAN).E boetse e tsepamisitse maikutlo tabeng ea ho theha likamano tsa moruo oa machaba ka har'a "moahelani" oa eona ka lipuisano le ho phethela morero oa "Lebanta le Tsela" le Tšebelisano e Feletseng ea Moruo (RCEP).
Ho tsoa ho data ea khoebo, re ka bona ka ho hlaka kopanyo e tebileng ea moruo pakeng tsa China le linaha tsa ASEAN.Ho ea ka lintlha tsa UNCTAD, Sehlopha sa ASEAN se fetohile molekane e moholo oa khoebo oa Chaena, ho feta United States le European Union2 (Setšoantšo sa 6).
Ela hloko: Khoebo ea thepa e bolela kakaretso ea thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha le kantle ho naha.Mohloli: UNCTAD, lirafshoa li nkiloe ho "Industrial Analysis Platform".
ASEAN e se e le ea bohlokoa le ho feta joalo ka sebaka se shebiloeng bakeng sa thomello ea seoa.Qetellong ea 2019, sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo se tla feta 20%.Sekhahla sena sa kholo se holimo haholo ho feta thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha ea China ho ASEAN.Limmaraka tse ling tse ngata tse kholo tsa lefats'e li kenyelletsa United States, Japane, le European Union (Setšoantšo sa 7).
Leha thepa e romelloang kantle ho naha ea China ho ASEAN le eona e anngoe ke mehato ea phepelo e amanang le Covid-19.E fokotsehile ka hoo e ka bang 5% qalong ea 2020-ha ba amehe hakaalo ho feta thepa ea Chaena e eang US, Japane le EU.Ha tlhahiso ea China e hlaphoheloa bothateng ka Hlakubele 2020, thepa ea eona ea kantle ho naha ho ASEAN e ile ea eketseha hape, ea eketseha ka 5% ka Hlakubele 2020/April 2020, le lipakeng tsa Phupu 2020 le 2020. Ho bile le keketseho ea khoeli le khoeli ea ho feta 10% lipakeng tsa. Loetse.
Tlhokomeliso: Thekiso ea linaha tse peli e baloa ka litheko tsa hajoale.Ho tloha ka Loetse/Mphalane 2019 ho isa Loetse/Mphalane 2020, mohloli oa liphetoho tsa selemo le selemo: Tsamaiso e Akaretsang ea Litloaelo tsa Rephabliki ea People of China.Kerafo e nkiloe sethaleng sa tlhahlobo ea indasteri.
Ho lebeletsoe hore mokhoa ona o hlakileng oa karohano ea sebopeho sa khoebo ea China o tla ba le phello ea mokhoa oa ho nchafatsa ketane ea boleng ba lefats'e le ho ba le phello e ntle ho balekane ba setso ba China.
Haeba liketane tsa boleng tse ikhethileng tse hokahantsoeng li arotsoe ka sebaka le ho aroloa ka libaka, ho thoe'ng ka litšenyehelo tsa lipalangoang - le ho ba kotsing ea likotsi tsa lefats'e le litšitiso tsa thekiso ea thepa?E ka fokotsoa (Javorcik 2020).Leha ho le joalo, liketane tse matla tsa libaka li ka thibela lik'hamphani le moruo ho aba lisebelisoa tse haellang ka nepo, ho eketsa tlhahiso kapa ho fumana menyetla e phahameng ka ho khetheha.Ho feta moo, ho itšetleha haholo ka libaka tse fokolang tsa libaka ho ka fokotsa palo ea lik'hamphani tse etsang lihlahisoa.Ho feto-fetoha ha maemo ho fokotsa bokhoni ba bona ba ho fumana mehloli e meng le mebaraka ha ba angoa ke linaha kapa libaka tse itseng (Arriola 2020).
Liphetoho tsa thepa e tsoang China ho tsoa China li ka paka sena.Ka lebaka la likhohlano tsa khoebo tsa Sino-US, thepa ea kantle ho naha ea Amerika e tsoang Chaena e ntse e theoha likhoeling tse 'maloa tsa pele tsa 2020. Leha ho le joalo, ho fokotsa ho itšetleha ka China ho ts'ehetsa liketane tsa boleng ba libaka ho ke ke ha sireletsa lik'hamphani tsa US ho phello ea moruo ea seoa sena.Ebile, thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha ea Amerika e ile ea eketseha ka Hlakubele le Mmesa 2020-haholo lisebelisoa tsa bongaka -?China e ikitlaelletsa ho fihlela tlhoko ea lehae (Phupu 2020).
Le hoja liketane tsa boleng ba lefats'e li bontšitse tekanyo e itseng ea ho tiea ha ho tobane le tsitsipano ea morao-rao ea moruo oa lefats'e, litšitiso tsa nakoana (empa li ntse li le ngata) li entse hore linaha tse ngata li nahane hape ka melemo e ka bang teng ea ho arola libaka kapa ho kenya liketane tsa boleng sebakeng sa heno.Lintlafatso tsena tsa morao-rao le matla a ntseng a eketseha a moruo o ntseng o hola a amanang le moruo o tsoetseng pele litabeng tsa khoebo le lipuisano tse amanang le linaha tse ntseng li hōla moruong li etsa hore ho be thata ho bolela esale pele mokhoa oa ho lokisa hantle ketane ea boleng ba lefatše., Ho hlophisoa bocha le ho hlophisoa bocha.Leha ho hlahisoa ha ente e sebetsang ho elella bofelong ba 2020 le mathoasong a 2021 ho ka theola tšusumetso ea Covid-19 moruong oa lefats'e, ts'ireletso e tsoelang pele ea khoebo le maemo a lipolotiki a bonts'a hore lefats'e ha le na monyetla oa ho khutlela boemong ba "khoebo" le joalo ka tloaelo???.Ho sa ntse ho e-na le tsela e telele ea ho tsamaea nakong e tlang.
Tsebiso ea Mohlophisi: Kholomo ena e phatlalalitsoe qalong ka la 17 Tšitoe 2020 ke UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform (IAP), setsi sa tsebo sa dijithale se kopanyang tlhahlobo ea litsebi, pono ea data, le ho pheta lipale ka lihlooho tse amanang le nts'etsopele ea indasteri.Maikutlo a hlahisitsoeng kholomong ena ke a mongoli 'me ha a hlile ha a bontše maikutlo a UNIDO kapa mekhatlo e meng eo mongoli a leng ho eona.
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Evenett, SJ (2020), "Li-Whispers tsa China: COVID-19, Global Supply Chain le Public Policy in Basic Commodities", International Business Policy Journal 3:408 429.
Evenett, SJ, le J Fritz (2020), "Tšenyo ea lithuso: Litlamorao tsa meeli ea ts'ebetso e feteletseng ea leano la seoa", VoxEU.org, la 17 Pulungoana.
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Meyer, B, SMÃsle and M Windisch (2020), "Lithuto tse tsoang timetsong e fetileng ea liketane tsa boleng ba lefats'e", UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform, Mots'eanong 2020.
Michel C (2020), "Europe's Strategic Autonomy-Sepheo sa Moloko oa Rōna" - Puo ea Mopresidente Charles Michel ho Bruegel Think Tank ka la 28 Loetse.
Miroudot, S (2020), "Resilience and Robustness in Global Value Chains: Some Policy Implications", a sebetsa Baldwin, R le SJ Evenett (eds) COVID-19 le "Trade Policy: Why Win Inward", CEPR Press.
Qi L (2020), "Liromello tsa kantle ho naha tsa China ho ea Amerika li fumane mokhoa oa ho iphelisa ho tsoa tlhokong e amanang le coronavirus", The Wall Street Journal, la 9 Mphalane.
Seric, A, HGörg, SM?sle le M Windisch (2020), "Ho Laola COVID-19: Kamoo seoa sena se senyang liketane tsa boleng ba lefats'e", UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform, Mmesa.
1 Lebolokelo la polokelo la "Global Trade Alert" le na le boitshunyako ba leano bo kang mehato ea litefiso, lithuso tsa thepa kantle ho naha, mehato e amanang le matsete a amanang le khoebo, le mehato ea ts'ireletso e ka 'nang ea ama khoebo ea kantle ho naha.
Nako ea poso: Jan-07-2021