IYuan ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwisithuba esingaphezulu kweminyaka emibini, ibonakalisa ukongamela kweTshayina kwimveliso kwaye inika umongameli onyuliweyo uBiden indawo yokuphefumla.
Uqoqosho lwaseHong Kong-China lubuyile enzonzobileni yobhubhani we-coronavirus, kwaye imali yayo ijoyine amanqanaba.
Kwiinyanga zamva nje, izinga lotshintshiselwano lwedola yaseMelika ngokuchasene nedola laseMelika kunye nezinye iimali ezinkulu linyuke ngamandla.Ukususela ngoMvulo, izinga lokutshintshiselwa kwe-dollar yase-US kwi-dollar yase-US yayiyi-6.47 yuan, ngelixa i-dollar yase-US ekupheleni kukaMeyi yayiyi-7.16 yuan, kufuphi neyona nqanaba eliphezulu kwiminyaka emibini enesiqingatha.
Ixabiso leemali ezininzi lithanda ukutsiba phezulu, kodwa iBeijing kudala ibambe ubukhoboka kwireyithi yotshintshiselwano yaseTshayina, ngoko ke ukutsiba kwerenminbi kukhangeleka ngathi kukutshintsha kwamandla.
Ukuxabisa i-renminbi kunempembelelo kwiinkampani ezenza iimpahla e-China, iqela elikhulu.Nangona esi siphumo sibonakala singenasiphumo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, sinokwenza iimveliso ezenziwe eTshayina zibize kakhulu kubathengi kwihlabathi liphela.
Elona futhe lithe ngqo linokuba seWashington, apho uMongameli-onyuliweyo uBiden kulindeleke ukuba angene kwi-White House kwiveki ezayo.Koorhulumente abadlulileyo, ukuhla kwexabiso le-renminbi kwabangela ukuba iWashington ibe nomsindo.Uxabiso lwe-renminbi lusenokungadambi ukuxinana phakathi kwala mazwe mabini, kodwa lunokuphelisa ingxaki enokubakho kwicandelo le-Biden.
Ubuncinci okwangoku, i-coronavirus ithotywe eTshayina.Iifektri zaseMelika ziphuma zonke.Abathengi kulo lonke ihlabathi (uninzi lwabo abavaleleke emakhaya okanye abakwazi ukuthenga amatikiti eenqwelo-moya okanye amatikiti okuhamba ngenqanawa) bathenga zonke iikhompyutha ezenziwe eTshayina, oomabonakude, izibane zeringi ezizithulelayo, izitulo ezijikelezayo, izixhobo zokusebenza egadini kunye nezinye izinto zokuhombisa ezinokuzakhela.Idatha eqokelelwe nguJefferies & Company ibonise ukuba isabelo se-China sokuthumela ngaphandle kwehlabathi sinyuke saya kwirekhodi ye-14.3% ngoSeptemba.
Abatyalomali nabo banqwenela ukugcina imali eTshayina, okanye ubuncinci kutyalo-mali oludityaniswe neyuan.Ngophuhliso oluluqilima lwezoqoqosho, iBhanki Embindi yaseTshayina inendawo yokuba inzala ibe phezulu kunaleyo yaseYurophu naseUnited States, ngelixa iibhanki ezingundoqo eYurophu naseUnited States zigcine inzala kumanqanaba aphantsi ngokwembali ukuxhasa ukukhula.
Ngenxa yokuhla kwexabiso ledola yaseMelika, iyuan ngoku ibonakala yomelele ngakumbi xa ithelekiswa nedola yaseMelika.Abatyali-mali babheja ukuba uqoqosho lwehlabathi luya kuphinda lubuyele kulo nyaka, ngoko ke abantu abaninzi baqala ukutshintsha imali yabo kwiindawo ezikhuselekileyo ezenziwe ngeedola (ezifana ne-US Treasury bonds) ukuya kubhejo oluyingozi.
Ixesha elide, urhulumente waseTshayina uye walawula ngokuqinileyo izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-renminbi, ngokuyinxenye ngenxa yokuba uthintele umda we-renminbi onokuwela umda ukuya e-China.Ngezi zixhobo, nokuba ngaba iinkokeli bekufanele ukuba ziyixabise i-renminbi, iinkokeli zaseTshayina zigcine i-renminbi ibuthathaka ngokuchasene nedola iminyaka emininzi.Ukuthotywa kwerenminbi kunceda iifektri zaseTshayina zehlise amaxabiso xa zithengisa iimpahla phesheya kolwandle.
Okwangoku, iifektri zaseTshayina azibonakali zifuna uncedo olunjalo.Nokuba i-renminbi iyayixabisa, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-China kuyaqhubeka nokunyuka.
UShaun Roache, ingcali yezoqoqosho kwingingqi ye-Asia-Pacific ye-S&P Global, inkampani yokulinganisa, yathi ngenxa yokuba i-United States inesabelo esikhulu sesiseko sabathengi bayo, abantu abaninzi sele bebeke ixabiso leshishini labo ngeedola kune-yuan.Oku kuthetha ukuba nangona imida yengeniso yeefektri zaseTshayina inokubethwa, abathengi baseMelika abayi kuqaphela ukuba umahluko wexabiso mkhulu kakhulu kwaye baya kuqhubeka nokuthenga.
Imali eyomeleleyo nayo ilungile eTshayina.Abathengi baseTshayina banokuthenga iimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ngobulumko ngakumbi, ngaloo ndlela benceda iBeijing ikhulise isizukulwana esitsha sabathengi.Oku kukhangeleka kukuhle koosoqoqosho kunye nabaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo ekudala bebongoza i-China ukuba ikhulule ulawulo olungqongqo kwinkqubo yezemali yaseTshayina.
Ukuxabisa i-renminbi kunokunceda i-China ikhulise umtsalane wemali yayo kwiinkampani kunye nabatyali-mali abakhetha ukwenza ishishini ngeedola.I-China kudala ifuna ukwenza imali yayo kumazwe ngamazwe ukuze yandise impembelelo yayo kumazwe ngamazwe, nangona umnqweno wokulawula ngokungqongqo ukusetyenziswa kwayo udla ngokubeka isithunzi kula mabhongo.
U-Becky Liu, intloko yesicwangciso esikhulu saseTshayina kwi-Standard Chartered Bank, uthe: "Ngokuqinisekileyo eli lithuba le-China lokukhuthaza ukwenziwa kwerenminbi kumazwe ngamazwe."
Nangona kunjalo, ukuba i-renminbi ixabisa ngokukhawuleza kakhulu, iinkokeli zaseTshayina zinokungena ngokulula kwaye ziphelise lo mkhwa.
Abagxeki ngaphakathi kweCongress yaseBeijing kunye norhulumente kudala betyhola urhulumente waseTshayina ngokuphatha kakubi i-yuan exchange rate ngendlela elimaza abavelisi baseMelika.
Ekuphakameni kwemfazwe yokurhweba kunye ne-United States, i-Beijing yavumela i-yuan ukuba iyancipha ukuya kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo lengqondo ye-7 ukuya kwi-dollar ye-1 yase-US.Oku kwakhokelela kulawulo lukaTrump ukuba luhlele iChina njengomphathi wemali.
Ngoku, njengoko ulawulo olutsha lulungiselela ukungena kwi-White House, iingcali zikhangela iimpawu zokuba iBeijing inokuthamba.Ubuncinci, i-RMB eyomeleleyo ngoku inqanda i-Biden ekusombululeni le ngxaki okwethutyana.
Nangona kunjalo, ayinguye wonke umntu onethemba lokuba ukuxatyiswa kwe-renminbi kuya kwanela ukulungisa ubudlelwane phakathi koqoqosho lwehlabathi olukhulu.
U-Eswar Prasad, owayesakuba yintloko yeSebe laseTshayina leNgxowa-mali yeMali yeZizwe ngeZizwe (IMF), wathi: “Ukubuyisela uzinzo kubudlelwane baseTshayina ne-US, kuthatha okungaphezu nje kokuxabisa imali.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-19-2021