Ubhubhani we-Covid-19 ubhentsise ubuthathaka bothungelwano lorhwebo lwehlabathi oluxhasa amakhonkco exabiso lehlabathi.Ngenxa yokunyuka kwemfuno kunye nezithintelo zorhwebo ezisanda kusekwa, ukuphazamiseka kokuqala kokunikezelwa kweemveliso zonyango ezibalulekileyo kuye kwabangela ukuba abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo kwihlabathi lonke babuze ukuxhomekeka kwelizwe labo kubaboneleli bangaphandle kunye nothungelwano lwemveliso yamazwe ngamazwe.Le kholamu iza kuxoxa ngokuchacha kwe-China emva kobhubhane ngokweenkcukacha, kwaye ikholelwa ukuba impendulo yayo inokubonelela ngekamva lamatyathanga exabiso lehlabathi.
Amatyathanga exabiso ehlabathi akhoyo asebenza ngokufanelekileyo, anobuchule kwaye aqhagamshelene, kodwa asengozini kakhulu kwimingcipheko yehlabathi.Ubhubhani we-Covid-19 bubungqina obucacileyo boku.Njengoko uqoqosho lwase-China kunye nolunye uqoqosho lwase-Asiya lwabethwa kukuqhambuka kwentsholongwane, icala lokubonelela laphazamiseka kwikota yokuqala ka-2020. Intsholongwane ekugqibeleni yasasazeka kwihlabathi, ibangela ukuvalwa kweshishini kwamanye amazwe.Ihlabathi lonke (Seric et al. 2020).Ukuwa kwekhonkco lokubonelela okulandelayo kubangele abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo kumazwe amaninzi ukuba bajongane nesidingo sokuzimela kwezoqoqosho kwaye baphuhlise amaqhinga okusabela ngcono kumngcipheko wehlabathi, nangeendleko zokusebenza kakuhle kunye nokuphuculwa kwemveliso okuziswe lumanyano lwehlabathi (Michel 2020, Evenett 2020) .
Ukujongana nale mfuno yokuzimela, ngakumbi malunga nokuxhomekeka kwezoqoqosho e-China, kukhokelele kuxinzelelo lwe-geopolitical, njengokunyuka kwamangenelo orhwebo ekuqaleni kukaDisemba 2020 (Evenett kunye noFritz 2020).Ngo-2020, phantse i-1,800 yongenelelo oluthintelo olutsha luye lwaphunyezwa.Oku kungaphezulu kwesiqingatha senani leengxabano zorhwebo ze-Sino-US kunye nomjikelo omtsha wokukhusela urhwebo uqiniswe kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo (Umfanekiso 1).1 Nangona amanyathelo amatsha okukhulula urhwebo athathiweyo okanye ezinye izithintelo zorhwebo olungxamisekileyo zaye zacinywa ngeli xesha, ukusetyenziswa kwamanyathelo ongenelelo lorhwebo olucalulayo kudlule kwimilinganiselo yokukhulula.
Qaphela: Umthombo wedatha yeenkcukacha-manani emva kokuba ingxelo ihlehlisiwe ukulungiswa: Isilumkiso soRhwebo lwehlabathi, igrafu ithathwa kwi-Industrial Analytics Platform.
I-China inelona nani likhulu localucalulo lorhwebo olubhalisiweyo kunye nongenelelo lwenkululeko yorhwebo kulo naliphi na ilizwe: ngaphandle kwe-7,634 yongenelelo lorhwebo olucalulayo oluphunyeziweyo ukusuka ngoNovemba 2008 ukuya ekuqaleni kukaDisemba 2020, phantse 3,300 (43%), kunye 2,715 Phakathi kwezorhwebo, 1,315 (48%). ukuphumeza ungenelelo lwenkululeko ngexesha elifanayo (Umfanekiso 2).Kumxholo wokwanda kokungavisisani kwezorhwebo phakathi kwe-China kunye ne-United States ngo-2018-19, xa kuthelekiswa namanye amazwe, i-China iye yajongana nezithintelo eziphezulu zorhwebo, ezithe zaqina ngakumbi ngexesha lentlekele ye-Covid-19.
Umfanekiso wesi-2 Inani longenelelo lomgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo ngamazwe achaphazelekayo ukusuka ngoNovemba ka-2008 ukuya ekuqaleni kukaDisemba ka-2020.
Qaphela: Le grafu ibonisa amazwe ama-5 abonakeleyo.Ingxelo ngezibalo ezilungisiweyo.Umthombo: "I-Global Trade Alert", iigrafu zithathwa kwiqonga lohlalutyo lweshishini.
Ukuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lokubonelela nge-Covid-19 kunika ithuba elingazange libonwe ngaphambili lokuvavanya ukomelela kwamatyathanga exabiso ehlabathi.Idatha yokuhamba kwezorhwebo kunye nemveliso yemveliso ngexesha lobhubhani ibonisa ukuba ukuphazamiseka kobonelelo ekuqaleni kuka-2020 yayiyeyokwexeshana (Meyer et al., 2020), kwaye ikhonkco lexabiso lehlabathi elandisiweyo elidibanisa iinkampani ezininzi kunye noqoqosho libonakala lincinci. ububanzi, inamandla okumelana norhwebo kunye nezothuso zezoqoqosho (Miroudot 2020).
Isalathisi se-RWI's throughput index.Ngokomzekelo, i-Leibniz Institute for Economic Research kunye ne-Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) yathi xa ubhubhani wehlabathi waqhambuka, ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwezorhwebo lwehlabathi kuqala kwabetha amachweba aseTshayina kwaye kwasasazeka kwamanye amazibuko ehlabathi (RWI 2020) .Nangona kunjalo, isalathiso se-RWI/ISL sikwabonise ukuba amazibuko aseTshayina abuyela ngokukhawuleza, abuyela kumanqanaba obhubhane ngoMatshi ka-2020, kwaye omelezwa ngakumbi emva kokuhlehla kancinci ngo-Epreli 2020 (Umfanekiso 3).Isalathiso sikwathetha ukwanda komthamo wesikhongozeli.Kuzo zonke ezinye (ezingezizo zaseTshayina) izibuko, nangona oku kubuyiselwa kwaqala emva kwexesha kwaye kubuthathaka kuneChina.
Qaphela: Isalathisi se-RWI/ISL sisekelwe kwidatha yokuphatha isikhongozeli eqokelelwe kumazibuko angama-91 emhlabeni jikelele.La mazibuko athatha indawo yokuphatha iikhonteyina ezininzi zehlabathi (60%).Kuba iimpahla zorhwebo zehlabathi zithuthwa ubukhulu becala ngeenqanawe zekhonteyina, esi salathiso sinokusetyenziswa njengesalathisi sokuqala sophuhliso lorhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe.Isalathisi se-RWI/ISL sisebenzisa i-2008 njengonyaka wesiseko, kwaye inani lihlengahlengiswa ngamaxesha.I-Leibniz Institute of Economics/Iziko loQoqosho lokuThunyelwa kweeNqanawa kunye noLungiselelo.Itshathi ithathwa kwiqonga lokuhlalutya ishishini.
Kuye kwaphawulwa umkhwa ofanayo kwimveliso yehlabathi.Amanyathelo angqongqo okuqulatha intsholongwane anokuqala ukubetha imveliso kunye nemveliso yaseTshayina, kodwa ilizwe liphinde laqalisa imisebenzi yezoqoqosho ngokukhawuleza.NgoJuni ka-2020, imveliso yayo iye yaphinda yafikelela kwinqanaba lobhubhane kwaye iqhubekile ukukhula ukusukela ngoko (Umfanekiso 4).Ngokusasazeka kwe-Covid-19 kumazwe ngamazwe, malunga neenyanga ezimbini kamva, imveliso kwamanye amazwe yehla.Ukuchacha koqoqosho kula mazwe kubonakala kucotha kakhulu kunoko kweTshayina.Kwiinyanga ezimbini emva kokuba imveliso yaseTshayina ibuyele kumanqanaba angaphambi kobhubhane, ilizwe liphela lisasilela ngasemva.
Qaphela: Le datha isebenzisa i-2015 njengonyaka wesiseko, kwaye idatha ilungiswa ngamaxesha.Umthombo: I-UNIDO, iigrafu zithathwe kwi-Industrial Analytics Platform.
Xa kuthelekiswa namanye amazwe, ukuchacha okuqinileyo koqoqosho lwaseTshayina kubonakala ngakumbi kwinqanaba leshishini.Itshathi engezantsi ibonisa utshintsho lonyaka ngonyaka kwimveliso yamashishini amahlanu aseTshayina akhula ngokukhawuleza ngoSeptemba ka-2020, onke adityaniswe kakhulu kwikhonkco lexabiso lemveliso yehlabathi (Umfanekiso 5).Ngelixa ukukhula kwemveliso kwezine kula mashishini mahlanu e-China (ekude) kudlule kwi-10%, imveliso ehambelanayo yoqoqosho lwemizi-mveliso yehle ngaphezulu kwe-5% kwangelo xesha linye.Nangona isikali sokwenziwa kweekhompyuter, iimveliso ze-elektroniki kunye nezamehlo kumazwe ahambele phambili kwezoqoqosho (kunye nehlabathi liphela) zandile ngoSeptemba wama-2020, izinga lokukhula kwawo lisebuthathaka kuneTshayina.
Qaphela: Le tshati ibonisa utshintsho lweziphumo zamashishini amahlanu akhula ngokukhawuleza e-China ngoSeptemba wama-2020.
Ukuchacha okukhawulezileyo nokunamandla kwe-China kubonakala kubonisa ukuba iinkampani zaseTshayina zixhathisa ukothuka kwehlabathi kunezinye iinkampani ezininzi.Ngapha koko, ikhonkco lexabiso apho iinkampani zaseTshayina zibandakanyeka ngokunzulu zibonakala zinokuqina ngakumbi.Esinye sezizathu kukuba i-China iphumelele ngokukhawuleza ukunqanda ukusasazeka kwe-Covid-19 ekuhlaleni.Esinye isizathu sinokuba ilizwe linamatyathanga exabiso engingqi kunamanye amazwe.Ukutyhubela iminyaka, i-China ibe yindawo enomtsalane yotyalo-mali kunye neqabane lokurhweba kumazwe angabamelwane, ngakumbi i-Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN).Ikwagxile ekusekweni kobudlelwane boqoqosho lwamazwe ngamazwe phakathi “kwengingqi” yayo ngothethathethwano kunye nokuqukunjelwa kwenyathelo le-“Belt and Road” kunye ne-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Ukusuka kwiidatha zorhwebo, sinokubona ngokucacileyo ukudibanisa okunzulu kwezoqoqosho phakathi kweChina kunye namazwe ase-ASEAN.Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-UNCTAD, iQela le-ASEAN libe liqabane elikhulu lezorhwebo laseChina, lidlula i-United States kunye ne-European Union2 (Umfanekiso 6).
Qaphela: Urhwebo lwezinto ezithengiswayo lubhekiselele kwisimbuku sokungeniswa ngaphandle kunye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe.Umthombo: I-UNCTAD, iigrafu zithathwe kwi-"Industrial Analysis Platform".
I-ASEAN ibaluleke ngakumbi njengendawo ekujoliswe kuyo ekuthunyelweni ngaphandle kobhubhane.Ekupheleni kwe-2019, izinga lokukhula ngonyaka liya kudlula i-20%.Eli zinga lokukhula liphezulu kakhulu kunokuthunyelwa kweTshayina kumazwe angaphandle kwi-ASEAN.Ezinye iimarike ezinkulu zehlabathi zibandakanya iMelika, iJapan, kunye neManyano yaseYurophu (Umfanekiso 7).
Nangona ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweTshayina kwi-ASEAN kukwachatshazelwe ngamanyathelo okuqulatha anxulunyaniswa ne-Covid-19.Ukuncitshiswa malunga ne-5% ekuqaleni kuka-2020-abachaphazeleki kancinane kunokuthunyelwa kwe-China ngaphandle kwe-US, i-Japan kunye ne-EU.Xa imveliso yemveliso yase China iphinde yabuya kwingxaki ngoMatshi ka-2020, ukuthunyelwa kwayo kumazwe angaphandle kwi-ASEAN kuphinde kwanyuka, kunyuke nge-5% ngoMatshi ka-2020/Aprili 2020, naphakathi kukaJulayi 2020 no-2020. Bekukho ukonyuka kwenyanga okungaphezulu kwe-10% phakathi EyoMsintsi.
Qaphela: Ukuthengisa kumazwe angaphandle kubalwa ngamaxabiso angoku.Ukusukela ngoSeptemba/Okthobha 2019 ukuya kuSeptemba/Okthobha 2020, umthombo wotshintsho unyaka nonyaka: Ulawulo Jikelele lweCustoms yeRiphabhlikhi yaBantu baseTshayina.Igrafu ithathwa kwiqonga lohlalutyo lwamashishini.
Kulindeleke ukuba le ndlela icacileyo yengingqi yolwakhiwo lwezorhwebo lwaseTshayina iya kuba nefuthe kwindlela yokulinganisa kwakhona ikhonkco lexabiso lehlabathi kwaye ibe nefuthe elibi kumaqabane orhwebo emveli aseTshayina.
Ukuba amatyathanga exabiso akhethekileyo kunye adityanisiweyo ehlabathi asasazeke ngakumbi kwaye abekwe ngokwengingqi, kuthekani ngeendleko zothutho - kunye nokuba sesichengeni kwimingcipheko yehlabathi kunye nokuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lokubonelela?Isenokuncitshiswa (Javorcik 2020).Nangona kunjalo, amakhonkco exabiso engingqi anamandla anokuthintela iinkampani kunye noqoqosho ekusasazeni ngokusebenzayo izixhobo ezinqabileyo, ukwandisa imveliso okanye ukuqonda amandla aphezulu ngokusebenzisa ubungcali.Ukongeza, ukuthembela kakhulu kwiindawo ezilinganiselweyo zejografi kunokunciphisa inani leenkampani ezivelisayo.Ukuguquguquka kunciphisa amandla abo okufumana enye imithombo kunye neemarike xa bechatshazelwa ngamazwe athile okanye imimandla (Arriola 2020).
Utshintsho kwimveliso yase-US evela eTshayina inokungqina oku.Ngenxa yokungavisisani kwezorhwebo e-Sino-US, ukuthengwa kwe-US evela e-China kuye kwehla kwiinyanga ezimbalwa zokuqala zika-2020. Nangona kunjalo, ukunciphisa ukuthembela e-China ukuxhasa amatyathanga exabiso engingqi akuyi kukhusela iinkampani zase-US kwimpembelelo yezoqoqosho yobhubhane.Ngapha koko, ukuthengiswa kwe-US kwenyuka ngoMatshi nango-Epreli ka-2020-ingakumbi izixhobo zonyango-?I-China izama ukuhlangabezana nemfuno yangaphakathi (Julayi 2020).
Nangona amatyathanga exabiso ehlabathi abonise iqondo elithile lokomelela kuqoqosho lwangoku lwehlabathi, ukuphazamiseka konikezelo lwexeshana (kodwa kuninzi) kuye kwabangela ukuba amazwe amaninzi aphinde acinge ngeenzuzo ezinokubakho zokwenziwa kommandla okanye ukwenziwa kwendawo kwamakhonkco exabiso.Olu phuhliso lwakutsha nje kunye namandla akhulayo oqoqosho olusahlumayo ngokunxulumene noqoqosho oluphuhlileyo kwimiba yorhwebo kunye nothethathethwano olunxulumene noqoqosho olusakhulayo lwenza kube nzima ukuqikelela indlela yokuhlengahlengisa ngcono ikhonkco lexabiso lehlabathi., Ulungelelwaniso ngokutsha kunye nohlengahlengiso.Nangona ukwaziswa kwesitofu sokugonya esisebenzayo ngasekupheleni kuka-2020 kwaye ekuqaleni kuka-2021 kunokukhulula impembelelo ye-Covid-19 kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, ukhuseleko oluqhubekayo kurhwebo kunye neendlela ze-geopolitical zibonisa ukuba umhlaba awunakwenzeka ukuba ubuyele "kwimeko yeshishini" kunye nesiqhelo esifanayo???.Iseyinde indlela ekufuneka ihanjwe kwixesha elizayo.
Inqaku lomhleli: Le kholamu yapapashwa okokuqala nge-17 kaDisemba, ngo-2020 yi-UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform (IAP), iziko lolwazi lwedijithali elidibanisa uhlalutyo lweengcali, ukubonwa kwedatha, kunye nokubaliswa kwamabali kwizihloko ezinxulumene nophuhliso lwamashishini.Iimbono ezichazwe kule kholamu zezo zombhali kwaye azibonakalisi iimbono ze-UNIDO okanye eminye imibutho apho umbhali akhoyo.
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1 Uvimba weenkcukacha we-“Global Trade Alert” uqulathe ungenelelo lomgaqo-nkqubo olufana nemilinganiselo yoluhlu lweerhafu, inkxaso-mali yokuthumela ngaphandle, imilinganiselo yotyalo-mali enxulumene norhwebo, kunye nemilinganiselo yorhwebo enokuchaphazeleka/yokhuseleko olunokuthi luchaphazele urhwebo lwangaphandle.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-07-2021