Umqedazwe we-Covid-19 udalule ubuthakathaka bamanethiwekhi ohwebo omhlaba asekela amaketanga amanani omhlaba.Ngenxa yokwanda kwesidingo kanye nezithiyo zohwebo ezisanda kusungulwa, ukuphazamiseka kokuqala kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwemikhiqizo yezokwelapha ebalulekile sekwenze abenzi bezinqubomgomo emhlabeni wonke bangabaza ukuncika kwezwe labo kubahlinzeki bangaphandle namanethiwekhi okukhiqiza amazwe ngamazwe.Le kholamu izodingida kabanzi mayelana nokululama kwase-China kwangemva kobhubhane, futhi ikholelwa ukuthi impendulo yayo ingase inikeze izinkomba zekusasa lamaketanga amanani omhlaba.
Amaketango akhona emhlabeni jikelele asebenza kahle, aqeqeshiwe futhi axhumene, kodwa futhi asengozini enkulu ezingozini zomhlaba wonke.Umqedazwe we-Covid-19 uwubufakazi obucacile balokhu.Njengoba iChina namanye amazwe ezomnotho ase-Asia ahlaselwa ukuqubuka kwaleli gciwane, uhlangothi lokuhlinzeka lwaphazamiseka engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2020. Leli gciwane lagcina lisakazekele emhlabeni wonke, labangela ukuvalwa kwebhizinisi kwamanye amazwe.Umhlaba wonke (Seric et al. 2020).Ukuwohloka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla okwalandela kwashukumisela abenzi bezinqubomgomo emazweni amaningi ukuthi babhekane nesidingo sokuzanelisa ngokomnotho futhi bathuthukise amasu okusabela kangcono ezingozini zomhlaba wonke, ngisho nangezindleko zokusebenza kahle kanye nentuthuko yokukhiqiza elethwa ukuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke (Michel 2020, Evenett 2020) .
Ukubhekana nalesi sidingo sokuzanelisa, ikakhulukazi mayelana nokuncika kwezomnotho e-China, kuholele ekushubeni kwezombusazwe, njengokukhuphuka kokungenelela kwezohwebo ekuqaleni kukaZibandlela wezi-2020 (i-Evenett noFritz 2020).Ngo-2020, sekuqaliswe ukungenelela okusha okunemingcele okucishe kube yi-1,800.Lokhu kungaphezu kwesigamu senani lezingxabano zezohwebo ze-Sino-US kanye nomzuliswano omusha wokuvikeleka kwezohwebo uqiniswe eminyakeni emibili edlule (Umdwebo 1).1 Nakuba izinyathelo ezintsha zokukhulula ezohwebo zathathwa noma imikhawulo ethile yohwebo oluphuthumayo yakhanselwa phakathi nalesi sikhathi, ukusetshenziswa kwezinyathelo zokungenelela kwezohwebo ezibandlululayo kweqa izinyathelo zokukhulula.
Qaphela: Umthombo wedatha yezibalo ngemva kokulungiswa kombiko: Isexwayiso Sohwebo Lomhlaba Wonke, igrafu ithathwe ku-Industrial Analytics Platform.
I-China inenani elikhulu kunawo wonke lokucwaswa kwezohwebo okubhalisiwe kanye nokungenelela kokukhululeka kwezohwebo kunoma yiliphi izwe: kweziyi-7,634 ukungenelela kwezohwebo ezinobandlululo eziqaliswe kusukela ngoNovemba 2008 kuya ekuqaleni kukaZibandlela wezi-2020, cishe eziyi-3,300 (43%), kanye nezi-2,715 Phakathi kwezentengiselwano, ziyi-1,315 (48%). sebenzisa ukungenelela kwenkululeko ngesikhathi esifanayo (Umfanekiso 2).Esimeni sokungezwani kwezentengiselwano phakathi kweChina ne-United States ngo-2018-19, uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amazwe, i-China ibhekane nemikhawulo ephezulu yokuhweba, eqhubeke yaqina ngesikhathi senhlekelele ye-Covid-19.
Umfanekiso 2 Inombolo yokungenelela kwenqubomgomo yezohwebo emazweni athintekile kusukela ngoNovemba 2008 kuya ekuqaleni kukaDisemba 2020.
Qaphela: Le grafu ibonisa amazwe angu-5 avezwe kakhulu.Bika izibalo ezilungiswe kahle.Umthombo: "I-Global Trade Alert", amagrafu athathwe endaweni yokuhlaziya yezimboni.
Ukuphazamiseka kwe-Covid-19 supply chain kunikeza ithuba elingakaze libonwe lokuhlola ukuqina kwamaketanga amanani omhlaba.Imininingwane mayelana nokugeleza kwezohwebo kanye nomphumela wokukhiqiza ngesikhathi sodlame ikhombisa ukuthi ukuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain ekuqaleni kuka-2020 bekungokwesikhashana (Meyer et al., 2020), kanti uchungechunge lwamanje olwandisiwe lwamanani omhlaba oluxhuma izinkampani eziningi nezomnotho lubonakala lungolwesikhashana. ngezinga, inamandla okumelana nokushaqeka kwezohwebo nezomnotho (Miroudot 2020).
I-RWI's container throughput index.Isibonelo, i-Leibniz Institute for Economic Research kanye ne-Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) ithe ngesikhathi kubheduka ubhubhane lomhlaba wonke, ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwezohwebo emhlabeni wonke kwaqala kwahlasela amachweba aseShayina kwase kusakazekela kwamanye amachweba emhlabeni (RWI 2020) .Kodwa-ke, inkomba ye-RWI/ISL iphinde yakhombisa ukuthi amachweba aseShayina alulama ngokushesha, aphindela emazingeni angaphambi kobhubhane ngoMashi 2020, futhi aqina ngokwengeziwe ngemuva kokuhlehla kancane ngo-Ephreli 2020 (Umfanekiso 3).Inkomba iphinde isho ukwanda kokuphuma kweziqukathi.Kuwo wonke amanye amachweba (okungewona awaseShayina), nakuba lokhu kuthola kabusha kuqale kamuva futhi kubuthakathaka kune-China.
Qaphela: Inkomba ye-RWI/ISL isuselwe kudatha yokuphatha isiqukathi eqoqwe ezimbobeni ezingama-91 emhlabeni jikelele.Lawa machweba asebenza ekuphathweni kwamabhokisi amaningi emhlabeni (60%).Njengoba izimpahla zohwebo emhlabeni jikelele zithuthwa kakhulu ngemikhumbi yamabhokisi, le nkomba ingasetshenziswa njengenkomba yokuqala yokuthuthuka kohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe.Inkomba ye-RWI/ISL isebenzisa u-2008 njengonyaka oyisisekelo, futhi inombolo ilungiswa ngesizini.I-Leibniz Institute of Economics/Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.Ishadi lithathwe endaweni yokuhlaziya yezimboni.
Kuye kwaphawulwa ukuthambekela okufanayo emikhiqizweni yomhlaba wonke.Izinyathelo eziqinile zokuqukatha igciwane zingaqala zithinte ukukhiqizwa kanye nokuphuma kweChina, kodwa izwe liphinde laqala kabusha imisebenzi yezomnotho ngokushesha okukhulu.NgoJuni 2020, umkhiqizo wayo wokukhiqiza usukhuphukele emazingeni angaphambi kobhubhane futhi uqhubeke nokukhula kusukela lapho (Umfanekiso 4).Ngokusabalala kwe-Covid-19 emhlabeni jikelele, cishe ezinyangeni ezimbili kamuva, ukukhiqizwa kwamanye amazwe kwehla.Ukusimama komnotho kulawa mazwe kubonakala kuhamba kancane uma kuqhathaniswa nelaseChina.Ezinyangeni ezimbili ngemuva kokuthi umkhiqizo waseChina ubuyele emazingeni angaphambi kobhubhane, umhlaba wonke usasilele emuva.
Qaphela: Le datha isebenzisa u-2015 njengonyaka oyisisekelo, futhi idatha ilungiswa ngesizini.Umthombo: I-UNIDO, amagrafu athathwe ku-Industrial Analytics Platform.
Uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amazwe, ukusimama okuqinile komnotho waseChina kubonakala kakhulu ezingeni lezimboni.Ishadi elingezansi libonisa izinguquko zonyaka nonyaka emikhiqizweni yezimboni ezinhlanu zaseShayina ezikhula ngokushesha ngoSepthemba 2020, zonke ezihlanganiswe kakhulu ochungechungeni lwenani lomhlaba lokukhiqiza (Umfanekiso 5).Nakuba ukukhula komkhiqizo kwezine zalezi zimboni ezinhlanu eShayina (ekude) kudlule i-10%, umphumela ohambisanayo weminotho yezimboni yehle ngaphezu kwama-5% esikhathini esifanayo.Nakuba izinga lamakhompiyutha akhiqizayo, imikhiqizo ye-elekthronikhi kanye ne-optical emazweni anezimboni (nasemhlabeni jikelele) senyuke ngoSepthemba 2020, izinga lokukhula kwawo lisebuthakathaka kunelaseShayina.
Qaphela: Leli shadi libonisa izinguquko zokukhishwa kwezimboni ezinhlanu ezikhula ngokushesha e-China ngo-September 2020. Umthombo: I-UNIDO, ethathwe eshadini le-Industrial Analysis Platform.
Ukululama kweShayina okusheshayo nokuqinile kubonakala kukhombisa ukuthi izinkampani zaseShayina zimelana kakhulu nokushaqeka komhlaba kunezinye izinkampani eziningi.Eqinisweni, uchungechunge lwamanani lapho izinkampani zaseShayina zihileleke ngokujulile zibonakala zikwazi ukumelana.Esinye sezizathu kungaba ukuthi iChina iphumelele ukunqanda ngokushesha ukusabalala kwe-Covid-19 endaweni.Esinye isizathu kungaba ukuthi izwe linamaketango amanani esifunda amaningi kunamanye amazwe.Eminyakeni edlule, i-China isiphenduke indawo ekhangayo yokutshala izimali kanye nozakwethu wokuhweba emazweni angomakhelwane, ikakhulukazi i-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).Iphinde igxile ekusunguleni ubudlelwano bomnotho wamazwe ngamazwe ngaphakathi “komakhelwane” bayo ngokuxoxisana nokuphothulwa kohlelo “lwe-Belt and Road” kanye Nobambiswano Olubanzi Lwezomnotho Lwesifunda (RCEP).
Kusuka kudatha yezohwebo, singabona ngokucacile ukuhlanganiswa okujulile komnotho phakathi kwamazwe ase-China kanye ne-ASEAN.Ngokusho kwedatha ye-UNCTAD, Iqembu le-ASEAN libe nguzakwethu omkhulu wokuhweba wase-China, lidlula i-United States kanye ne-European Union2 (Umfanekiso 6).
Qaphela: Uhwebo lwempahla lusho isamba sokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kanye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe.Umthombo: I-UNCTAD, amagrafu athathwe “ku-Industrial Analysis Platform”.
I-ASEAN isibaluleke kakhulu njengesifunda okuhloswe ngaso ukuthunyelwa kwezifo ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.Ekupheleni kuka-2019, izinga lokukhula lonyaka lizodlula ama-20%.Leli zinga lokukhula liphezulu kakhulu kunokuthunyelwa kwe-China okuthekelisa ku-ASEAN.Ezinye izimakethe zomhlaba ezinkulu eziningi zifaka i-United States, Japan, kanye ne-European Union (Umfanekiso 7).
Yize ukuthunyelwa kweChina okuya e-ASEAN nakho kuthintekile yizinyathelo zokuqukethwe ezixhumene ne-Covid-19.Ehliswe cishe ngo-5% ekuqaleni kuka-2020-athinteka kancane kunokuthunyelwa kweChina e-US, Japan kanye ne-EU.Lapho umkhiqizo waseShayina ululama enkingeni ngoMashi 2020, ukuthunyelwa kwayo e-ASEAN kwaphinde kwanyuka, kwakhuphuka ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwama-5 ngoMashi 2020/Ephreli 2020, naphakathi kukaJulayi 2020 no-2020. Kube nokukhuphuka kwanyanga zonke okungaphezu kuka-10% phakathi September.
Qaphela: Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kubalwa ngamanani amanje.Kusukela ngoSepthemba/Okthoba 2019 kuya kuSepthemba/Okthoba 2020, umthombo wezinguquko zonyaka nonyaka: Ukuphathwa Okujwayelekile KweCustoms of the People's Republic of China.Igrafu ithathwe endaweni yokuhlaziya yezimboni.
Kulindeleke ukuthi lokhu kuthambekela okusobala kokuhlukaniswa kwesifunda kwesakhiwo sohwebo saseShayina kuzoba nomthelela endleleni yokulinganisa kabusha uchungechunge lwamanani omhlaba futhi kube nomthelela omkhulu kubalingani bokuhweba bendabuko baseShayina.
Uma amaketango omhlaba akhethekile kakhulu futhi axhumene ehlakazeka kakhulu futhi ehlukaniswa ngokwezifunda, kuthiwani ngezindleko zokuthutha - kanye nokuba sengozini kwezingozi zomhlaba wonke kanye nokuphazamiseka kwe-supply chain?Ingancishiswa (Javorcik 2020).Kodwa-ke, uchungechunge lwenani oluqinile lwesifunda lungavimbela izinkampani nezomnotho ekusabalaliseni ngempumelelo izinsiza eziyivelakancane, zikhulise umkhiqizo noma zibone amandla aphezulu ngokusebenzisa ubuchwepheshe.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthembela kakhulu ezindaweni ezilinganiselwe kungase kunciphise inani lezinkampani ezikhiqizayo.Ukuvumelana nezimo kukhawulela ikhono labo lokuthola eminye imithombo nezimakethe uma zithintwa amazwe athile noma izifunda (Arriola 2020).
Izinguquko ekuthengisweni kwe-US okuvela e-China zingakufakazela lokhu.Ngenxa yokungezwani kwezohwebo phakathi kwe-Sino-US, ukuthengwa kwe-US okuvela e-China bekwehla ezinyangeni ezimbalwa zokuqala zika-2020. Kodwa-ke, ukunciphisa ukuthembela eChina ukuze isekele amaketanga amanani esifunda ngeke kuvikele izinkampani zaseMelika emthelela womnotho walolu bhubhane.Eqinisweni, ukuthengiswa kwe-US kwenyuka ngoMashi nango-Ephreli 2020-ikakhulukazi izinsiza zokwelapha -?I-China ilwela ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zasekhaya (Julayi 2020).
Nakuba uchungechunge lwenani lomhlaba lubonise izinga elithile lokuqina lapho kubhekene nezimo ezishintshashintshayo manje zezomnotho emhlabeni, ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwesikhashana (kodwa okusabanzi) kuye kwabangela amazwe amaningi ukuba acabangele kabusha izinzuzo ezingaba khona zokuhlukaniswa kwezifunda noma ukwenziwa kwasendaweni kwamaketango amanani.Lezi zenzakalo zakamuva kanye namandla akhulayo eminotho esafufusa ngokuphathelene nezomnotho ezithuthukile ezindabeni zezohwebo kanye nezingxoxo eziphathelene neminotho esafufusa yenza kube nzima ukubikezela ukuthi lungalungiswa kanjani kangcono uchungechunge lwamanani omhlaba., Ukuhlelwa kabusha kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha.Yize ukwethulwa komuthi wokugoma osebenzayo ngasekupheleni kuka-2020 nasekuqaleni kuka-2021 kungase kuxegise ithonya le-Covid-19 emnothweni womhlaba, ukuvikela okuqhubekayo kwezohwebo kanye nezimo zezwe kukhombisa ukuthi umhlaba mancane amathuba okuthi ubuyele esimweni “sebhizinisi” futhi esifana nesejwayelekile???.Iseyinde indlela okusazohanjwa ngayo.
Inothi lomhleli: Le kholomu yashicilelwa okokuqala ngomhla ka-17 Disemba 2020 yi-UNIDO Industrial Analysis Platform (IAP), isikhungo solwazi lwedijithali esihlanganisa ukuhlaziywa kochwepheshe, ukubonwa kwedatha, nokuxoxwa kwezindaba ngezihloko ezihlobene ekuthuthukisweni kwezimboni .Imibono evezwe kule kholamu ngeyombhali futhi ayibonisi imibono ye-UNIDO noma ezinye izinhlangano umbhali ayingxenye yazo.
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1Â Isizindalwazi se-"Global Trade Alert" siqukethe ukungenelela kwenqubomgomo okufana nezilinganiso zentela, uxhaso lokuthekelisa, izinyathelo zokutshala izimali ezihlobene nohwebo, kanye nezinyathelo zokukhulula ukuhweba okuncikene/zokuvikela ezingase zithinte uhwebo lwangaphandle.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-07-2021